{"id":10305,"date":"2016-11-30T10:52:34","date_gmt":"2016-11-30T10:52:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/?p=10305"},"modified":"2017-01-29T09:46:00","modified_gmt":"2017-01-29T09:46:00","slug":"how-assad-is-winning-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/11\/30\/how-assad-is-winning-in-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Assad winning in Syria"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The best thing &#8211; which given the two appalling candidates means the least worst thing &#8211; about Clinton&#8217;s defeat on November 8 is the receding threat of her <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2016\/oct\/25\/hillary-clinton-syria-no-fly-zones-russia-us-war\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>No Fly Zone<\/strong><\/a> for Syria. Let&#8217;s spell this out. In its self anointed role as Global Sheriff, the USA would be ordering a sovereign state, and the one foreign power lawfully operating within it, to ground their air forces while terrorists step up their efforts to topple an elected government. Bad as this is, worse is the fact Russia is a nuclear power second only to the USA. A street savvy kid could predict the ensuing moves. Day One: Russia sends a single MIG fighter, as good a symbol as any of how western analysts have misjudged her military capability, through Syrian airspace to offer Washington a stark choice of triggering WW3 or having a reckless bluff called.<\/p>\n<p>How could such a thing even be contemplated without mass protest across the western world and beyond? Because a five year media narrative &#8211; endorsed by a BBC and Guardian aided by liberal\/centre-left credulity &#8211; has succeeded in painting Assad as<a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/05\/23\/assad-the-tyrant\/\" target=\"_blank\"> <strong>one bloody tyrant<\/strong><\/a> backed by <a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/01\/27\/open-letter-to-owen-jones-on-putin\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>another<\/strong><\/a>, and efforts to overthrow him as a popular uprising against brutal oppression. (Even if, in subsequent adjustments that would make a Stalin blush, the freedom fighter angle has had to be re-engineered to distinguish &#8216;moderate&#8217; rebels from groups the west has by its own criminal acts created and fuelled; which it and its regional proxies are elsewhere bombing and droning, and whose wrecking of Syria it with Alice in Wonderland logic blames on Assad.)<\/p>\n<p>Such truth inversion is challenged in an account by Quintus Curtius, copied below in its entirety and written in March, though I only came across it last night. Despite the author&#8217;s fondness for classical allusions\u00a0&#8211; there&#8217;s a clue in what I hope for his or her sake is a pen name &#8211; it is highly readable. It&#8217;s also the best single-sitting read I&#8217;ve seen on Syria&#8217;s nightmare. Better yet, it posits a happy ending insofar as anything to do with that grievously violated country merits such an adjective.<\/p>\n<p>First a note of caution. Trump&#8217;s presidency is in my view to be welcomed solely as (possibly) lesser evil on account\u00a0of his promise, which has some<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/usa\/320781-rohrabacher-russia-syria-us\/#.WDuMEVlD_Aw.facebook\" target=\"_blank\"> <strong>Republican support<\/strong><\/a>, to lift the WW3 threat her warmongering poses. But the threat is only averted if (a) that motormouth makes good &#8211; given levels of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deep_state_in_the_United_States\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>deep state<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0resistance he is experientially and perhaps temperamentally ill equipped to face down &#8211; on his vow to work with Russia against the Salafists, and (b) the Obama administration does not seek to enact the no-fly madness before January 20. Either could make Curtius&#8217;s assessment of eight months ago sorely misleading or simply irrelevant.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: justify;\"><strong>Update 5\/12\/16.<\/strong> Outside the scope of this post is the fact any improvement in relations with Russia may in any case come at cost of deteriorating ones with China. Trump&#8217;s antipathy to China is well known, and he&#8217;s caused a furore by his call on Saturday to the Taiwan premier. But what worries me is that this may &#8211; I stress, <strong>may<\/strong> &#8211; be more than just maverick shooting from the hip. It <strong>may<\/strong> be that Trump has a green light from the &#8220;deep state&#8221;, <em>aka<\/em>\u00a0 America&#8217;s ruling class. Sooner or later the USA will <a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/09\/03\/perilous-days\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>go for China<\/strong><\/a> and we know how easily it can manufacture consent for a &#8220;just&#8221; war. The conflicts of interest are too great and, as I keep saying, history offers no precedent for the world&#8217;s foremost military power allowing itself to be overtaken economically.<\/p>\n<p>[ezcol_1third]Meanwhile Syrian forces have sealed the border to trap the Islamists in Aleppo, in the country&#8217;s north west corner. Scenes of <a href=\"https:\/\/off-guardian.org\/2016\/11\/28\/video-scenes-from-the-partial-liberation-of-east-aleppo\/#comments\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>citizens liberated<\/strong><\/a> have not been shown by &#8220;our&#8221; media, which ignore <a href=\"https:\/\/off-guardian.org\/2016\/10\/24\/syrian-catholics-denounce-western-media-biased-reporting-in-aleppo\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>East Aleppo&#8217;s blitzing<\/strong><\/a> by western armed &#8216;moderates&#8217; in favour of the daily theme of Russian and Syrian strikes on civilians. See this <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/xKMOcD0cfeo\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>90 second clip<\/strong><\/a> on Aleppo&#8217;s &#8220;last&#8221; hospital for a taste of how badly served we are by liberal media whose great [\/ezcol_1third] [ezcol_2third_end]<a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/msyria.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10291\" src=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/05\/msyria.gif\" alt=\"msyria\" width=\"508\" height=\"461\" \/><\/a>[\/ezcol_2third_end]betrayal has been to delude us into thinking ourselves well and impartially informed. That said, in one of those exceptions that prove the rule, the Independent ran a Patrick Cockburn feature last month showing the mismatch in media coverage of two eminently comparable situations: the besiegements of Aleppo and Mosul. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/voices\/iraq-syria-aleppo-mosul-patrick-cockburn-propaganda-we-consume-a7373951.html\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Recommended<\/strong><\/a>. Yesterday I heard at least three BBC headlines telling of panic stricken civilians &#8216;fleeing Aleppo&#8217;, as though to seek shelter with the rebels from Assad&#8217;s bombs. Only in the details a tiny minority will ever trouble themselves with is it made clear they are running <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-middle-east-38121877\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>towards <\/strong><\/a>government held areas &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230; though that minority will be rewarded by this:<\/p>\n<h6 style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Some 275,000 people are under siege as the army&#8217;s offensive &#8211; now in its 13th day &#8211; is intensified. The assault has killed 219 civilians, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for [sic] Human Rights says. Among the victims were 27 children, the monitoring group added.<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The failure &#8211; of an organisation mandated to provide balanced coverage &#8211; to <em>balance\u00a0 <\/em>the 219 death count with that of innocents killed by &#8220;our&#8221; forces and those &#8220;we&#8221; arm is routine. As is the failure to give a second of air time or inch of column space to the alternative account of Syria&#8217;s agony as the result of US-led efforts to take out yet another insufficiently compliant Middle East leader. But there&#8217;s another devilish detail, easily missed, in the quote. Syrian Observatory on Human Rights is not a &#8220;monitoring group&#8221;,\u00a0 as the BBC knows perfectly well and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/04\/10\/world\/middleeast\/the-man-behind-the-casualty-figures-in-syria.html?_r=2\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>New York Times<\/strong><\/a> can attest. It&#8217;s the one man show of an embittered emigre who last visited his country thirteen years ago. Yet this &#8220;group&#8221; is frequently cited by Beeb and Graun as an authoritative source; one of countless bricks &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.counterpunch.org\/2015\/04\/20\/biased-reporting-on-syria-in-the-service-of-war\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Human Rights Watch<\/strong><\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/theduran.com\/the-continuing-story-of-the-white-helmets-hoax\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>White Helmets<\/strong><\/a> being others &#8211; in the wall built to justify what is being done in our name. Don&#8217;t take my word for this: go to the websites of these media and search on those outfits. Here, for instance, is a tiny selection of the returns of one such search:<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/syrian-obervatory.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10758\" src=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/syrian-obervatory.jpg\" alt=\"syrian-obervatory\" width=\"650\" height=\"606\" srcset=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/syrian-obervatory.jpg 650w, https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/syrian-obervatory-300x280.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As with the &#8216;reliable evidence of Saddam&#8217;s WMDs&#8217;, the &#8216;dodgy dossier&#8217; and the cherry picked PhD thesis, on the back of such evidence are we invited to support the greatest evil of all: unprovoked war on another country. But back to Quintus Curtius. S\/he may be an escapee from Frankie Howerd&#8217;s Up Pompei but has given us an admirably succinct and fair minded overview.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"entry-title\"><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Last Man Standing: How Assad Won The War<br \/>\n<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Is it too soon to say that the Syrian government has won the war? \u00a0I don\u2019t believe it is. Barring some extreme event that radically changes the facts on the ground (e.g., a full ground invasion by a combination of powers), the government will soon be in the position to dictate peace terms to the rebels.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Background<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Since 2011, Syria has been the battleground of regional and international powers. \u00a0An initial wave of \u201cArab Spring\u201d protests was quickly seized on by the intelligence services of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, the Gulf States, and the United States as a unique opportunity to do what they had wished to do for many decades: \u00a0install a compliant, obedient regime in Damascus (another Jordan, perhaps) that would do their bidding.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">These countries, and a few in Europe (France and to a lesser extent Britain), proceeded to pour millions of dollars into funding \u201crebel\u201d (i.e., Islamist) groups in Syria. \u00a0Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states recruited Sunni jihadis from all over the world to fight the government in Syria. \u00a0Turkey provided logistical support, diplomatic cover, and safe havens within its borders for insurgent groups. \u00a0Israel provided some air support, intelligence collection, and (along the Golan) even medical treatment for the rebels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">What were the motivations of the major players? \u00a0We must first remember that since the early 1970s, Syria has been ruled by a secular, authoritarian government that is Arab nationalist (Ba\u2019athist) in its inclinations. \u00a0Although it is not a Western-style democracy, it at least has been able to raise the standard of living steadily for its citizens since the 1970s, and has provided a degree of relative security and stability for its citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Its major \u201ccrime\u201d lies in the fact that it acts in Syrian and Arab interests, not in the interests of the West or Israel. \u00a0For this reason, it has been targeted for destruction since Bashar Al-Assad\u2019s father ruled the country. \u00a0The Middle East is a rough neighborhood, with competing interests and ferocious rivalries that date back centuries. \u00a0Foreign and regional powers do not want an independent Syria that acts in its own interests. \u00a0They want flunkies who will (1) open their economies up to Western and Israeli commercial interests; (2) accept the domination of their economic systems and foreign policy by outsiders; and (3) otherwise do what they are told by the world hegemon.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">These countries form one main regional power bloc which has expended a great deal of money and diplomatic effort to overthrow the Syrian government. \u00a0They are Sunni-majority countries, and have economic plans for the exploitation of Syria if only a compliant government can be put into power there. \u00a0Turkey also sees Syria historically almost as an integral part of the Ottoman domain (especially the city of Aleppo).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">This \u201cSunni bloc\u201d of regional states is deeply concerned (and in Saudi Arabia\u2019s case, terrified) with the rise of Iran and a perceived \u201cShi\u2019ite\u201d resurgence in the region. \u00a0Everywhere these countries look, they see Shi\u2019ite power growing. \u00a0Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon (through Hezbollah) all have strong ties to Iran, and the Sunni bloc of states finds this fact deeply disturbing. \u00a0Syria for decades has found that its security interests are best served by alignment not with the West, but with Iran. \u00a0It cultivates close ties with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now for the first time in many years has close relations with Iraq.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Sunni Muslims have been the majority in the Middle East for hundreds of years. \u00a0Turkey (which is now ruled by a religiously-leaning government), Saudi Arabia, and their Gulf allies see Shi\u2019ites as upstarts and pretenders, and resent their nascent power. \u00a0Added to this is the fact that secular Syria has been a protector of religious minorities for decades: \u00a0Greek Orthodox, Yazidis, Catholics, Assyrians, even Jews have been left unmolested by the secular government in Damascus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">So the decision to support \u201crebels\u201d in Syria by Saudi Arabia and Turkey was motivated by fear of Shi\u2019ite power, religious bigotry, and acute awareness (in Saudi Arabia\u2019s case) of declining regional significance.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Israel<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">For public consumption, Israel has been content to take a back seat to the carnage going on in its neighbor\u2019s borders. \u00a0It has always benefited from inciting chaos and instability in Arab countries, and the Syrian war is no exception. \u00a0Its ideal outcome is to see Syria destroyed, as Iraq was destroyed, so that it can continue its own policies of dominance and annexation in the region. \u00a0Yet it cannot intervene too overtly in the conflict, for fear of undermining the credibility of the \u201crebel\u201d groups. \u00a0It contents itself with providing intelligence and some measure of logistical support to the Western-backed \u201crebels.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">United States and Europe<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">These countries mostly take their cues from Israel or the interests of their multi-national corporations. \u00a0A flunky regime in Damascus would provide investment opportunities for Western countries, and further footholds in the region. \u00a0The unrelenting fear-mongering by Saudi Arabia about Shi\u2019ite \u201cradicalism\u201d also strikes a responsive chord with Western leaders who are too stupid or lazy to question such propaganda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Steel City note:<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> in our view Curtius understates western investment in the war and its outcome. A future post will set out our understanding of this and\u00a0 other\u00a0US led invasions as efforts to open up state capitalist economies for <a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/05\/20\/privatise-the-world-monetise-everything\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>privatisation<\/strong><\/a>, and as a means of blocking <a href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/09\/03\/perilous-days\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Sino\/Russian influence<\/strong><\/a> in the region. And while it&#8217;s reductionist to see arms sales as root cause of America&#8217;s ceaseless aggression, we should note how much her <a href=\"https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/class\/e297a\/U.S.%20Defense%20Industry%20and%20Arms%20Sales.htm\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>$10 trillion arms sector<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0benefits, to the detriment of US taxpayers in yet another transfer of wealth from public to private hands, from the \u00a0lucrative business of killing people.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">How Assad Won The War<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Points-And-Lines.<\/strong> \u00a0When the armed conflict began in earnest, Assad and his advisors seemed to be overwhelmed by the scale of the assault that they had been subjected to. Turkey, Jordan (a staging area for rebel forces), and Saudi Arabia began to pour in men and weapons in one all-out push to overthrow the government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">There were long-simmering scores to settle. \u00a0Most of the rebels were Islamist groups of one stripe or another who had never forgiven the Assad family for the crushing of the Islamist revolt in Syria in the early 1980s. \u00a0Those of us old enough to remember the 1980s knew that, in that war, no quarter had been asked for or given by either side. \u00a0And it only ended when all opposition was utterly destroyed and membership in the Muslim Brotherhood made punishable by death. \u00a0The lid was kept on radicalism for a while, but not permanently.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">The early momentum was with the rebels. \u00a0Years of corruption and ossification of Syria\u2019s military and security forces meant that it was ill-equipped to handle the onslaught. \u00a0Islamist groups managed to seize control of large urban centers in different parts of the country, and seemed poised to move on Damascus when the time was right. \u00a0Syria\u2019s army slowly became weakened by defections, desertions, and poor leadership.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">But Damascus\u2019s years of cultivating ties with Iran and Hezbollah paid off when it counted most. \u00a0Assad was able to convince his allies that it was in their interest to have him remain in power; and by the end of the first year of the conflict, Iranian and Lebanese forces were fighting alongside the Syrian Army. \u00a0Many international observers considered Assad\u2019s days numbered; and his fall was predicted as only a matter of time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">But Assad dug in for the long haul, and made a canny assessment of the military situation on the ground. \u00a0He knew that if he held the main corridors of movement in the country (Damascus\u2013Aleppo\u2013Homs\u2013Hama), he could eventually marginalize the rebels, isolating them for the kill later on. \u00a0His strategy resembled what we might call a \u201cpoints-and-lines\u201d doctrine: \u00a0hold the main urban areas and lines of communication, consolidate the critical region around Latakia and the Mediterranean coast, and project power outwards from there. \u00a0And this is precisely what happened.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">In a January 2015 interview with <em>Foreign Affairs <\/em>magazine Assad stated:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">If you look at a military map now, the Syrian army exists in every corner. Not every place; by every corner, I mean north, south, east, west, and between. If you didn\u2019t believe in a unified Syria, that Syria can go back to its previous position, you wouldn\u2019t send the army there as a government.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">This strategy worked.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Sealing the Border.<\/strong> \u00a0Huge numbers of rebels are now effectively sealed off in a Stalingrad-like cauldron in Aleppo. \u00a0They will soon be at the mercy of the Syrian government. \u00a0The sealing of the border with Turkey and Jordan is also a goal that is now being pursued. \u00a0As Russian minister Sergei Lavrov has stated,<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">The key point for the ceasefire to work is a task of blocking illegal trafficking across the Turkish-Syrian border, which supports the militants. \u00a0Without closing the border it is difficult to expect the ceasefire to take place.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">This also serves as a subtle message to Turkey to stop funding and supporting the insurgents.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">* Update. If this <a href=\"https:\/\/mail.google.com\/mail\/u\/0\/#inbox\/158ce55e72ef0a46\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Al-Monitor piece<\/strong><\/a> of 4\/12\/16 is to be believed, both Quintus Curtius and Steel City Scribblings have been wide of the mark here. Far from sealing the border, Syrian forces may be opening it precisely to allow the terrorists back into Turkey. If so, Erdogan&#8217;s cup of self brewed bitterness brimmeth o&#8217;er:<\/span><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"padding-left: 60px; text-align: justify;\">What tens of thousands of heavily armed, combat-trained militants will be doing at the Turkish border is the most vital question of the scary scenario. Looking at the Syrian regime\u2019s game plan, this is what one sees: The Syrian army is facilitating the armed rebel groups to withdraw to the Turkish border by providing bus transport to carry the militants northward from areas they gave up.\u201d<\/h6>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Save the Worst for Last.<\/strong> \u00a0The Syrian government has been content to save the worst of the rebels, ISIS, for last. \u00a0It was a perfect example of the strategy of dealing with enemies one by one. \u00a0The rebels themselves never were able to coordinate fully with each other: \u00a0there were too many competing interests and patrons in play.<\/span><span style=\"color: #993300;\">No foreign government will shed a tear at their destruction, and the Syrian government knows this. \u00a0By focusing on cracking the hard nuts now, Assad can leave the easy ones to mop up at his leisure. \u00a0ISIS in any case holds mostly isolated regions that can easily be retaken when that time comes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Assad has also created an entire corps of non-regular militias that are loyal to him personally. \u00a0These militias have shown themselves to be very effective in rooting out and liquidating insurgents and their abettors. \u00a0Once the war ends, he is likely to be in a stronger position than when it began.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Hearts and Minds<\/strong>. \u00a0The government also won the battle for the hearts and minds of the Syrian people. Despite the Western propaganda about Assad\u2019s alleged \u201catrocities,\u201d the reality was that the rebels were far more bloodthirsty and brutal than the government forces. \u00a0Rebel militias practiced sectarian cleansing and a brand of religious extremism that was foreign to Syria\u2019s secular traditions. \u00a0The rebels were also tainted by being beholden to foreign assistance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Assad was more than happy to drive out the \u201crefugees\u201d from Syria who might be Islamist sympathizers. Zones that have shown sympathy to the rebels have been deliberately depopulated, and regions supportive of the government have been reinforced and strengthened.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">So while his army might have suffered manpower losses, so too did the rebels suffer. \u00a0News stories of ISIS beheadings, the appearance of terrorism in Europe (France), and a general distrust of anything tainted with Islamism all helped Assad shore up his image as a bastion of reasonableness in a sea of religiously-inspired lunacy. \u00a0Whether this was true or not is irrelevant (it was, in fact, true). \u00a0What mattered was the perception.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Assad has also told <em>Foreign Affairs:<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Before talking about winning territory, talk about winning the hearts and minds and the support of the Syrian people. That\u2019s what we have won. What\u2019s left is logistical; it\u2019s technical. That is a matter of time.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">This has proven to be a shrewd and well-considered\u00a0prediction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>The Propaganda War.<\/strong> \u00a0Assad has made efforts to align himself with the democratic process by holding elections in the middle of the war. \u00a0He also joined the global anti-ISIS coalition by bombing ISIS positions at times of his own choosing. \u00a0These efforts underscore the legitimacy of his government and hammer home the point that, without him, there is only chaos and Islamism.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Julius Caesar once had a saying that made this point most effectively: \u00a0<em>aut Caesar aut nullus.<\/em> \u00a0And this means, \u201cEither Caesar or nobody.\u201d \u00a0Terrorist attacks by ISIS lunatics in Paris have\u00a0called attention to the fact that, while Assad will never be a Jeffersonian democrat, he is at least a reasonable statesman with whom one can deal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Early in the conflict, Western intelligence services scored some propaganda victories against the Syrian government. \u00a0Some high-ranking Syrian government officials and military officers were induced to leave Syria or otherwise defect. \u00a0There were one or two publicized\u00a0assassination attempts against the Syrian president, which clearly bore the mark of Western intelligence assistance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">These moves were dangerous, to be sure, but they failed; and they had the net effect of improving Assad\u2019s position in the long run. \u00a0The military and intelligence services have become streamlined, more than ever before. \u00a0Unreliable, suspect, or disloyal figures have been fired, arrested, exiled, or jailed. \u00a0The remaining corps of officers and men are now dedicated, experienced, and motivated. \u00a0They have been reinforced and trained by Iranian advisors and Hezbollah auxiliaries, and are prepared to dig in for the long haul.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Other propaganda moves by the West fell flat. \u00a0The attempt to smear the Syrian government with \u201cchemical weapons\u201d use was one last desperate attempt by the United States to intervene militarily in the conflict, so as to help their proxies on the ground. \u00a0This move failed as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\"><strong>Shoring Up Alliances.<\/strong> \u00a0Without doubt, the most decisive factor in the turning of the tide was the intervention of Russia. \u00a0For the first time in modern memory, the Russians have come in with both feet into a Middle Eastern conflict. \u00a0They remained passive during the 1967 and 1973 conflicts; while nominally on the Arab side, they did very little to change facts on the ground.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Assad and his father\u2019s cultivation of strong ties with the Soviets (and now Russia) has finally paid off. \u00a0From the Russian perspective, it was unacceptable to see the balance of power in the region change so decisively; they were not willing to see Syria become a Western client state (or, worse yet, a failed state).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Russian air power has put up an impressive showing. \u00a0They have degraded rebel forces with missile strikes, air strikes, and close air support of Syrian army ground operations. \u00a0It is clear that smug Western assessments of Russia\u2019s limitations will have to be radically redrawn. \u00a0The Russians have not been happy with the slow pace of Syrian ground advances, but there is little more that they can do about this. \u00a0The Iranians have also proven to be very good at ground operations. \u00a0They are leading small units, but these have proven to be tough fighters. \u00a0Iranian drones are also apparently hitting rebel positions.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Final Assessment<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">The Syrian government is now poised to win the war. \u00a0It has followed a coherent military strategy. \u00a0It has deployed its forces wisely. \u00a0It has used its alliances to maximum advantage. \u00a0It has survived the many Western attempts to frame it with false reports of \u201cchemical weapons\u201d use, with atrocities, and with collaboration with ISIS. \u00a0It has isolated and destroyed its enemies one by one, leaving Assad the last man standing. \u00a0By any measure, Assad\u2019s achievement has been incredible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">There is always the chance that some dramatic event can change the realities on the ground, of course. \u00a0Recently, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been rattling their sabers, threatening to invade Syria in a desperate attempt to prop up their proxies. \u00a0This is a real possibility from Turkey, and much less so from Saudi Arabia. \u00a0The Saudis do not have the military capability for such an operation; their invention in Yemen is making this point resoundingly. \u00a0A ground invasion by Turkey would be a big risk for Ankara, and would likely see them bogged down in Syria in the same way that Israel was bogged down in South Lebanon for twenty years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">If present conditions hold, it is difficult to see 2016 as anything but a year of victory for Syrian government. \u00a0The cost has been terrible. \u00a0Many of the country\u2019s urban centers are ruined, the economy is destroyed, and Syria now owes a huge debt of gratitude to Russia and Iran. \u00a0But the army is now equipped to fight a non-conventional war, is more streamlined than ever before, and is prepared to dig in for the long process of mopping up.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">But independence comes at a cost. \u00a0If you do not obey orders from arrogant powers who seek to dominate you, you will be maligned and attacked. \u00a0Syria has been subjected to a vicious, coordinated armed assault by foreign mercenaries and regional powers for five long years. \u00a0Its army has been stretched to the limits of its endurance. \u00a0But it has held. \u00a0It has been able\u2013with great difficulty\u2013to recruit and arm supporting militias to handle the irregular aspects of the conflict. \u00a0And this is not the first time this game has been played. \u00a0In the 1980s, the West tried the same game when it supported the Muslim Brotherhood in its <a style=\"color: #993300;\" href=\"https:\/\/qcurtius.com\/2015\/12\/04\/when-your-back-is-against-the-wall-fight-back-any-way-you-can\/\">brutal insurgency against the Syrian government.\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">When someone attacks you and tries to destroy you, you have no choice but to resist. \u00a0This war was instigated by foreign powers who sought to impose their will Syria. They will now have to face the reality that their war, which they cold-bloodedly provoked, is ending in the defeat of their proxy forces. \u00a0Those who cold-bloodedly launched the war against Syria had forgotten\u2013if they ever knew it\u2013the judgment of the Greek historian Procopius, who wrote in his classic <em>History of the Wars <\/em>(II.4.51):<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">The crime has been committed by him who attempts it, even though success eludes him. \u00a0As for the course the war will follow, this is surely clear to everyone. \u00a0For it is not those who furnish causes for war, but those who defend themselves against those who furnish them, who tend to conquer their enemies.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #993300;\">Before the war began, there were many who scoffed contemptuously at Assad, believing him to be a mild-mannered doctor unfit to rule. \u00a0He was believed to be a weakling, a man of no consequence. These assumptions have been shown to be mistaken. \u00a0The world now knows that Bashar Al-Assad is, beyond doubt, a worthy\u00a0successor of his father.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The best thing &#8211; which given the two appalling candidates means the least worst thing &#8211; about Clinton&#8217;s defeat on November 8 is the receding threat of her No Fly Zone for Syria. Let&#8217;s spell this out. In its self &#8230; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2016\/11\/30\/how-assad-is-winning-in-syria\/\">Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics-middle-east"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10305\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}