{"id":158689,"date":"2025-12-02T15:13:06","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T15:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/?p=158689"},"modified":"2025-12-03T08:25:03","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T08:25:03","slug":"mearsheimer-us-will-not-invade-venezuela","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/steelcityscribblings.uk\/wp\/2025\/12\/02\/mearsheimer-us-will-not-invade-venezuela\/","title":{"rendered":"Mearsheimer: “The US will not<\/strong> invade Venezuela”<\/em>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Commenting on my post of November 7, Let’s talk about Venezuela<\/strong><\/a>, <\/span>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span> reader Jams O’Donnell cited Military Watch<\/strong><\/a> on the possibility that Russia:<\/p>\n

… will introduce the US to their own Ukraine on their own doorstep. As well as recently signing military treaties with Cuba, \u2013<\/h6>\n
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev has raised the possibility that Russia may deliver long range cruise and ballistic missile systems to equip the Venezuelan Armed Forces, providing the country with a deterrent at a time of high tensions with the United States. \u201cInformation about volumes and exact types is classified, so the Americans could be in for some surprises … <\/em>I also see no obstacles to supplying a friendly country with new developments like the Oreshnik or, say, the proven Kalibr missiles.\u201d\u00a0 <\/em>Zhuravlev\u00a0made this statement while confirming deliveries of new Pantsir and BuK-M2 short and medium range air defence system to enhance Venezuelan Air Force capabilities.<\/h6>\n
Lower profile alternatives to the Oreshnik could be delivered sooner, including 9M729 Novator cruise missiles, and the Bastion coastal defence system with P-800 medium range anti-ship missiles. The Novator’s’ 2500 km range puts Florida in reach, but Russia has during prior periods of past tension deployed Tu-160 strategic bombers, equipping the Venezuelan Armed Forces with the ability to retaliate against targets on the American mainland and against U.S. Navy warships in the Caribbean.<\/h6>\n
[Abridged slightly]<\/h6>\n

I replied that the MW piece:<\/p>\n

doesn\u2019t address (a) the likelihood of such an escalation; (b) the logistics of backing Caracas should the US retaliate. In Ukraine, decades of baiting Russia have been possible through [Washington’s] capture of European elites. While parts of Latin America are registering unease with Washington, and both Russian and Chinese \u2013 and to some extent Iranian \u2013 presence has been steadily growing, the axis of resistance has no equivalent of NATO (and its political wing, the EU) in the region.<\/h6>\n

And there we left it. Though in broad alignment on core issues, Jams and I at times take slightly different views of some things – even whether John or Paul was the more important Beatle! But here’s the thing. Today John Mearsheimer – a man I don’t always agree with but do always take seriously as a true mensch <\/em>– weighed in on the matter with what I deem his most gripping and cogent podcast <\/span>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span> to date. <\/span>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

And he’s firmly in Jams’s corner …<\/p>\n