Sheffield, UK, April 5 2025
It’s too early to tell if recent events, suggestive of Washington frosting out Netanyahu, mark the opening up of a deeper and broader divide between Israel and the underwriter it needs the way you and I need oxygen. 1
Both the Houthi deal and resumed talks on Iran’s nuclear programme left Israel out in the cold, while Saturday’s Jerusalem Post voiced Israeli fears of a forthcoming announcement whereby the Trump administration recognises a Palestinian state. That last is no more than a well-aired rumour, but the coinciding of these things with growing unease – on the part of Western elites who’ve so far given genocide their full blooded support – is fuelling speculation. 2
A distinction has to be drawn, however. It’s one thing to say the thin-skinned Donald is sick of a Bibi who not only brags of having US politicians in his pocket but back in 2020 irked Trump by hailing Biden as president in waiting even as the incumbent was contesting the count. Or that the West finds Israel’s excesses, and the shocking candour of its Smotrichs and Ben-Gvrs, an embarrassment it would fain be rid off of, could a ‘moderate’ – read: more quietly genocidal – replacement only be found. Scant evidence of that but today the New York Times ran with Trump disapproves Netanyahu’s Gaza Strategy, Bezos’s WashPo with Trump repeatedly bypasses Netanyahu, stoking dismay among Israelis.
It’s quite another though to speculate that the sun is setting on decades of close alignment of US deep state interests in the region with Israeli plans for a Greater Israel; that at levels deeper than any given administration in either state, financial, military and political costs of the West’s beachhead in the Middle East are starting to outweigh the benefits. While the first call is easily made – yes, Trump would love to throw Bibi under a bus – it would be foolhardy to make, and only a little less so to rule out, the second.
Especially when the only other candidates for projecting US power in the region, Riyadh and Ankara, show a worrying tendency to hedge their bets; keeping all options open in respect of that Banquo’s ghost, otherwise known as the People’s Republic of China, now haunting every aspect of US foreign policy.
One source worth reading, notwithstanding a header – The Establishment Slowly Wearies of Netanyahu and Israel – that tacitly conflates the two things I insist on separating, is Simplicus, writing just yesterday.
Another is Andrew Korybko. He always irks me but his well informed and argued appraisals, on an impressive range of geopolitical hotspots, make him a go-to source. Yes, his post yesterday – Trump’s Rift With Bibi Might Be Irreconcilable – crossed the line between irritating and odious with its unconcealed dismay at the very idea:
Israel would be left alone to deal with threats from Iran and Turkiye. To make matters worse, it can’t be ruled out that the US might curtail or even suspend its military aid to Israel on whatever pretext, thus weakening its armed forces …
Yet even here the man who never lets slip an opportunity to pour the bile of the truly obsessed on an “Alt-community” he loves to belittle has an argument not easily refuted, given that other Banquo’s ghost; Israel’s nuclear status. He follows the above sick-maker with this …
This combination of factors could lead to Israel wildly lashing out against its regional adversaries in desperation before it loses its military-strategic advantages, which could spark a large-scale war … a zero-sum dilemma it must avoid at all costs, yet Trump’s potentially irreconcilable rift with Bibi could turn this nightmare scenario into a fait accompli.
… but it’s hard to see the US ruling class allowing “Trump’s potentially irreconcilable rift with Bibi” to get so out of hand as to jeopardise half a century of empire building in the Middle East, unless it really did mean to cut Israel loose; a quantum leap from any currently known realities.
Be that as it may, Alix Underwood of Common Dreams, also writing yesterday, reminds us it’s truly an ill wind which blows no one any good; that Gaza’s suffering literally pays dividends:
Disapproval amongst Americans is growing. Yet the U.S. government continues to provide Israel with billions of taxpayer dollars of military aid per year. The ultimate recipient of this aid isn’t Israel; it’s the U.S. defense industry. More specifically, it’s the individuals who benefit from the industry’s growth.
And while she makes the one-sided claim that …
In their horrific October 7, 2023, attack, Hamas killed more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals and took 251 hostages. Even before this attack, many nations designated Hamas as a terrorist organization dedicated to Israel’s destruction. They cite its charter and longstanding tactics of suicide bombings, indiscriminate rocket fire, and the use of human shields. 3
… what follows is a useful assessment of the mechanisms, including but not confined to the revolving door between America’s government and its military industrial complex, by which war crime does indeed pay.
Meet the People Profiting from US Military Aid to Israel
A genocide backed by economic interests is a big problem involving powerful actors. However, many people are taking action to affect the status quo.
Six months ago, a United Nations Special Committee found that Israel’s warfare methods in Gaza were consistent with genocide. The UN defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group.” The Special Committee pointed to the fact that Israel had dropped over 25,000 tonnes of explosives—equivalent to two nuclear bombs—on Gaza in just four months. Interference with humanitarian aid, leading to starvation, was another atrocity. The Committee stated, “By destroying vital water, sanitation, and food systems, and contaminating the environment, Israel has created a lethal mix of crises that will inflict severe harm on generations to come.”
Disapproval amongst Americans is growing. Yet the U.S. government continues to provide Israel with billions of taxpayer dollars of military aid per year. The ultimate recipient of this aid isn’t Israel; it’s the U.S. defense industry. More specifically, it’s the individuals who benefit from the industry’s growth.
Millionaire CEOs benefit from the consumption of military goods and services that, so far, have enabled the killing of well over 50,000 people—nearly a third of them under 18. Lobbying and campaign contributions help ensure that their profits increase. It’s a vicious cycle that only a society obsessed with growth could stomach …
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- I opened my last post but one thus:
The strictly bilateral ceasefire Washington has agreed with Ansar Allah – see previous post – cannot but alarm a Tel Aviv whose nuclear status has no value other than as the bargaining chip of a madman with his back to the wall. Israel can do genocide in Gaza, ethnic cleansing on the West Bank, and incursions in Lebanon and Syria (the latter overextending its forces to put it on a collision course with Turkey) only for as long as Uncle Sam writes those infamously blank cheques.
- Caitlin Johnstone’s post today backs up the claim of its header, Multiple Western Press Outlets Have Suddenly Pivoted Hard Against Israel, by citing four UK outlets; Financial Times, Economist, Independent and Guardian.
- While I see no need to rehash arguments made many times on this site and a thousand like it, to Ms Underwood’s talk of Hamas’s “suicide bombings, indiscriminate rocket fire, and use of human shields”, I offer Israel’s Hannibal Doctrine, razing of Gaza, and an IDF HQ ringed by civilians in downtown Tel Aviv. That’s before we even get to the gruesome granularity of systemic rape, denial of aid, and targeting of medics and journalists. Or to the fact Israel has thousands of hostages in the form of men, women and children jailed without charge – for reasons that absolutely include use as bargaining chips in prisoner swaps – under its draconian Unlawful Combatants Act.