Ceasefire schmeasefire!

Even Trump admirers are waking up to the truth their man is an IDIOT who thinks he can RUN THE WORLD through the caps lock on his keyboard. Dmitry Orlov

June 22

A nuclear armed ethno-state 623 days into a genocide, and led by a man with an ICC warrant on his head over multiple war crimes, chose eleven days ago to perpetrate another war crime: an unprovoked attack on an Iran in mid negotiation with a USA whose blank cheques are the only thing keeping the ethno-state afloat as a racially supremacist settler colony.

Did I get that right? Nope. My use of “chose” implies a unilateralism not only inaccurate in this instance – Trump’s boastful “wedunnit” on Truth Social having pulled the rug from under Marc Rubio’s feeble denial of foreknowledge – but missing a more general truth. Israel gets blank cheques due neither to Uncle Sam’s boundless generosity nor because Israel rules America but because, for reasons set out here and here, Israel is a proxy of the US empire. Just as Ukraine, Taiwan and the Philippines are proxies. Just as ISIS/Al Qaeda is. Come to that, just as most of Europe is. ¹ As such, all are expendable. People really do need to get this, and while they’re at it wrap their heads – given how close we are to WW3 – round the truth that some sections of the US ruling class show every sign of believing that, with two vast oceans on either coast, they can survive the otherwise unthinkable.

I just used two terms, ruling class  and empire, I once strove hard to find workarounds for. Now I don’t bother. I also just defended – inviting the wrath of my country’s deranged shadow foreign secretary, Priti Patel ² – a nation state many, reared on an exclusion diet of Western corporate media, view as an unspeakably cruel and mediaevalist theocracy. Have I no moral compass?

Those who tell me, in respect of my defence of “regimes” like Syria, Russia, China and Iran, that my enemy’s enemy is not always my friend – an incontestable but, absent specific and properly informed contexts, vacuous truth – are liberals who either don’t recognise the US empire as a thing or, in eloquent testimony to the triumph of narrative over evidence, fail to see the extent of its evil. ³ I use the e-word neither lightly nor in any metaphysical sense, but in the decidedly corporeal sense of an entity driven by corporate interests whose sole guiding principles are the pursuit of power and profits. All else – like the millions slain, maimed, terrorised, malnourished, poisoned, robbed and displaced by a quarter century of war criminality in the oil-rich and geo-strategically pivotal Middle East – flows from that reality. ⁴

“In just 200 years we’ve progressed all the way from expecting our leaders to slaughter brown skinned people while saying racist things, to expecting our leaders to slaughter brown skinned people while condemning racism” – Caitlin Johnstone

Such a delusion, sometimes explicit but usually implicit, comes with two others. One, inferable from the way ‘sophisticated’ eyes roll at ‘far left silly talk’ of class rule, is that universal suffrage in the West consigned class in any oppositional sense to the dustbin of history. The other being that ‘quality’ wings of corporate media are genuinely independent, ⁵ hence capable of speaking truthfully even where to do so goes against the core interests of power.

I can think of no more cogent argument for insisting that Western democracy is ninety-five percent bogus than that (a) democracy implies consent, (b) consent is meaningless if not informed, and (c) informed consent implies truly independent media. That last we do not have when [as Noam Chomsky reminds us] they are “large corporations selling privileged audiences to other corporations”.

Britain decides!

Speaking of the far left, it knows empire’s depraved actuality every bit as well as I do, but insists in the face of reason and experience on a third way: neither US empire nor, inter alia, the state capitalisms of China, Venezuela and violently demolished ba’athisms in the Middle East; rather, an international socialism just round the corner.

The far left’s refusal to distinguish on the one hand China’s state-monitored industrial capitalism, its big banks firmly outside the private sector; on the other the usurping of state control by the West’s oligarchs, leads it to dismiss China as a progressive force. Rather, crying plague on China and the West both, it embraces (or pays lip service to) a fantasy of violently overthrowing capitalisms armed to the teeth, versed in all the dark arts, and wielding tools of surveillance beyond the wildest dreams of the 20th century totalitarianisms. This, moreover, in a West whose export of industry has eroded the very socialising conditions – an exploitation experienced en masse in the huge dark Satanic mills of Marx’s day – which led him to see the proletariat as the only force with both the means and the motive to take humanity into socialism.

On my travel bucket list: North Korea

Mainly I ignore this current, in which I once swam, as tiny and marginalised while liberals are many and, though under increasingly effective attack from a right their own absurdities do so inflame, more influential.

But back to Iran, where so much remains in the air. Were Sunday’s US strikes on Iran for real, or performative theatrics? Ditto this morning’s news of Iran striking US military bases in Qatar and Iraq. ⁶ Cases can be made either way but in truth it’s too early to tell.

Meanwhile, as I juggle grandfatherhood with buying and selling houses and preparing for a trip to Malaga, where a dear and intrepid friend has just bought a bar, here’s a source I often turned to in the context of the empire’s dirty war on Syria, not so much of late.

Trump yelling ‘ceasefire’ doesn’t mean ‘ceasefire’

Vanessa Beeley, June 24 2025

Points about the alleged US-Iran-Israel ceasefire that Trump is yelling about on X. These points are just me thinking out loud – feel free to add your opinions:

1. Ceasefires are never honoured by Israel or the US. See Lebanon, Palestine, violations of demarcation zone in Syria etc. Israel is a consumer more than a producer of weapons. Iran is a producer more than a consumer. Ceasefires are an opportunity for Israel to replenish stocks with US allied help. The war is far from over.
2. Israel also needs to rest its pilots, service the fighter jets and attend to the failings in the multi-layer air defence systems. Iran needs more time than Israel to address the damage from the first stage of the war. This is not to diminish the damage done to Israel by Iran – this is also considerable, but Israel has an entire cohort of powerful countries that will leap to its assistance.
3. Opposition politician, Avigdor Liebermann is already claiming ‘the ceasefire is shameful, neither Iran’s missile program nor its nuclear program was destroyed. This is an unconditional ceasefire. Iran will enrich uranium again (Iran never agreed to NOT enrich uranium)
4. Just prior to the faux ceasefire – a nuclear scientist, Mohhammad Reza Seddiqi was assassinated in early morning attacks by Israel. Dr Neda Rafiel Parsa, a senior manager at the Tavanir Company, Iran’s state-owned electricity company was also killed during the Zionist attack.
5. Terrorist attacks in the Gilan province of Iran in the north-east targeted a residential area. Nine civilians were murdered and 33 others injured. 16 of the dead and injured were women and children according to Iranian reports. See map.
6. Iran has seen its regional popularity explode since Israel began its aggression. The popularity among the people of the region is unprecedented. If the US wanted to isolate Iran, Israel’s aggression has had the opposite effect. Also unprecedented and perhaps unexpected, after the efforts by the West to orchestrate internal divide in Iran, national cohesion within Iran is at its highest since 1979. The Western-backed opposition were completely overwhelmed by the backlash from Iranian society. Their isolation will not recover.
7. Iran’s military credibility and power has been demonstrated across the region and in the capitals of the neocolonialist US-led Hegemons. Iran recovered from the initial blows dealt them by Israel and responded with intelligence, economy of scale and surprise. The Zionist air-defence suffered both in functionality and a loss of deterrence optics. Iran has not even unleashed its most modern and sophisticated missiles. It has reserves and can continue its war of attrition for the long-term. Israel needs the ceasefire to replenish its dwindling missile supplies. It also needs the Pyrhhic victory handed to them by Trump to keep Netanyahu in power.
8. Internally in Iran, some Iranian analysts have pointed out the opportunity to reform areas of the security, media, intelligence systems to strengthen the state for future conflict and infiltration. The lessons from this first stage of the inevitable war can be assimilated and addressed.
9. Israeli media – Theoretically the ceasefire has begun. Practically we are now in the shelters (7.25 am). The pain that Iran has inflicted upon Israel and the squatter population is unprecedented in history. The trauma will not be easy to recover from, nor should it be – while Israel is still conducting a sadistic and savage genocide in Gaza and the West Bank.
10. Israel, meanwhile, has been increasing its attacks in the south of Lebanon. Analysts here believe that there will be a new surge of Takfiri attacks, suicide bombings, IEDs to keep the Resistance and military occupied in case of a regional escalation that will bring the non-state Resistance actors into the war against Israel and the US.
11. In the early hours of Tuesday morning, multiple attacks were reported across Iraq. Taji Area, north of Baghdad. Baghdad International Airport. Balad – Salah Al Din Governorate. Balad Air Base, Al Bakr Air Base. Nasiryah – Dhi Qar governorate, Imam Ali Air Base in southern Iraq. No group has yet claimed responsibility but the attacks suggest a high level of coordination on the ground.
12. Enemy Watch on Telegram – America was losing this battle, so it announced a one-sided ceasefire but sent mixed messages. The U.S. plays aggression and imposes threats on opponents without justice. When it fears losing control, it announces ceasefires and flees just like in Gaza and Lebanon. Biden and Trump have only deepened the disgrace of the 249-year-old U.S. empire, weakening its hegemony. The challenge is not over. If the U.S. escalates border threats against Iran or takes other steps using its terror proxies, Iran and the resistance are ready and will remain cautious and serious to reply. Iran will hunt Mossad operatives, secure its borders, and prepare for the new challenges ahead.
13. This aggression has revealed to the world, except for those still asleep, that the US and Israel are the criminal players who routinely violate International Law. Iran did not start this war but it responded in a way that has earned it respect globally. This, despite sanctions and the entire Western diplomatic complex being weaponised against Iran – including the IAEA that literally greenlighted the aggression with its claim that Iran was ‘non compliant’. The US, Israel should, by now, be discredited entirely. It is only the power of the US that is keeping it afloat but even this is being exposed as a paper tiger on the world stage. Trump should be perceived as an inconsistent narcissist – this won’t happen with his diehard supporters who will still claim its all 5D chess but the more discerning should be very worried about where Trump will flip-flop to once his “ceasefire” loses its appeal.
14. The Ayatollah Khamenei was seen to be utterly un-phased by threats to assassinate him. He led the country with full command and presence of mind and ideology. Those paying attention in the world learned who he is, what he stands for and how Iran leads under pressure – they also witnessed mass support on the streets for the defence of the sovereignty of a proud, cultured and ancient civilisation.
15. The West and Israel failed to dent Iranian military defence and offence capabilities. Perhaps the ceasefire is to give US and Israel time to re-evaluate tactics to ‘regime change’ Iran after their blitzkrieg failed, just as. it did against Ansarullah.
16. Now Iran is applying pressure. Trump folded under the threat to the Hormuz Strait. The Arab Gulf states are in a state of panic over the possible threat to their oil facilities – their reason for existence. Iran is on the verge of expelling the IAEA. Iran has demonstrated that no threat, however great, will deter Iran from 1: Support for Palestine and the Resistance Axis 2: Iranian sovereignty and unity.
17. If Israel and US genuinely wanted to deter Iran from developing a nuclear weapon ( a claim that has been running for 30 years) their latest military antics will potentially have the opposite effect – and with good cause.
18. The powerful state allies of Iran in the world have come forward and made their positions clear. This is also another message to the US Israel alliance of genocide.

* * *

1. When the Canadian political economist, Professor Radhika Desai, was asked by the host of a discussion last September why Europe’s leaders act manifestly against the interests of their citizens, she replied:

   The entire Left in most Western countries – by ‘Left’ I mean the Social Democratic Left, the Green Parties and perhaps most of the entire political establishment – is now led by individuals who have been through the US ideological factories … the think tanks, the annual meetings etc. You know, the Leaders of Tomorrow type programs for which these people go to the USA on junkets, and become part of a network of leaders with a similar understanding of what is to be done, both domestically and internationally. People like Starmer, Macron, Von der Leyen and Baerbock … they belong to these circles. So in answer to the question – why are European governments acting so manifestly contrary to the interest of their economies, their people etc? – the only reason I can find is that at the present moment the United States is in this sweet spot where the people it has groomed have taken power in major European capitals.

2. I seldom plug the Guardian but John Crace’s characteristically witty take last Thursday on ‘Priti Vacant’ brought a smile to my face.
3. Harold Pinter had it right with his Nobel acceptance speech of 2005:

   The crimes of the USA have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few have talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.

4. As do other heinous crimes, first and foremost the ecocidal trashing of planet earth.
5. For why corporate media could not possibly be independent, regardless of the subjective sincerity of most editors and journalists, see my posts here and here and here.
6. There’s no evidence the US strikes significantly damaged Iranian nuclear reactors, let alone ‘obliterated’ them. Meanwhile, today on antiwar.com , Dave DeCamp notes that:

   The New York Times reported that Iran had notified Qatar of its plans to attack in order to minimize casualties, signaling Tehran is seeking de-escalation with the US. In 2020, after the US assassinated Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched a similar attack on a US base in Iraq, which the US didn’t respond to.