Two days ago, on August 14, Simplicius the Thinker, clearly a fellow addict of the BBC’s Line of Duty drama series, posted one of his frequent “SitReps” under the header, Zelensky Doubles Down as Front Collapses. In the main it’s a dissection of a Kursk attack I’ve elsewhere called “militarily insane”. Not because I’m an expert but because it’s clear to all who look that, in a war of attrition Ukraine is already losing, Zelensky’s decision to move his best forces, from where they are needed to where they are not, had to be political. A move suicidally pointless, other than to attract the flagging attention of a West more focused on the Middle East.
Frankly, Zelensky’s disregard for the lives of his men and his country’s suffering disgusts me.
But before he gets into that, Simplicius has a word or two to say of the impending, and world war three threatening, Iranian response to Israel’s murder of Ismail Haniyeh. Or rather, the world war three threatening response – of the one actor which needs to broaden the conflict – to that response.
I must again stress that nobody, not even in Tehran or Tel Aviv, knows how this is going to end. Apart from its immediate instigators, nobody even knows the next move. So like the rest of us, Simplicius is guessing.
As a quick aside, for those who’ve accused Iran of cowardice for potentially backing down, new reports indicate Iran may have been persuaded by some desperate quid-pro-quo on the U.S. side in exchange for Iran not carrying out the massive strikes, which would humiliate the U.S. and force it into a war on Israel’s behalf which it cannot win, and which would likely end the U.S. empire for good:
It’s true of course that with friends like Uncle Sam you don’t really need enemies. But even if the Jerusalem Post is not being used by Tel Aviv and AIPAC to send Washington a coded warning – or is just plain misinformed – would the heads of a couple of Mossad operatives suffice? As I said four days ago in How far to WW3, sir?
We are where we are. And where we are, in the Middle East no less than Ukraine – and for the same reason; a waning empire with the means to destroy the world a thousand times over steered by men and women with the maturity and strategic vision, if you’ll excuse the insult to simianity, of adolescent chimpanzees – is closer to Armageddon than at any point in history.
The incalculables include:
- applications of the prisoner’s dilemma to questions of whether to strike first;
- Tehran restraint being read as weakness, inviting more escalation not less from Israel …
- … thereby incentivising Iran, a threshold nuclear power, to take that final step;
- Iran’s dead hand capacity to annihilate Israel – even by conventional means and even after a nuclear strike by “the Jewish State”;
- Israel’s adoption of Nixon’s ploy of projecting irrationality which, from a government whose nominal head is himself a hostage to eschatologists of Smotrich and Ben Gvr stamp, just might be the real deal.
This site can never condone assassination, but were the security of an Itamar Ben Gvr or Bezalel Smotrich – who I don’t suppose use the same house two nights running – to be breached, and those men taken out Israeli style, some might find a certain poetic justice in that. Even the late John Lennon might call it giving peace a chance.
Just saying.
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