There are decades, said Lenin, when little happens. And weeks (though he might with no loss of accuracy have said days or even hours) when decades happen.
Not a hundred hours ago I wrote of the big question being: how will Iran respond?
Tehran now has three response options: (a) roll over and accept Israeli superiority in ways that spell regime change – crown jewel of the seven nations plan revealed 22 years ago to General Wesley Clark on the eve of the criminal war on Iraq; (b) respond economically and/or militarily in ways that seriously damage Israeli and Western interests, so handing to Israel what it has always sought: hot war, with America overtly onboard, regardless of the potential to drag in China and Russia; (c) go thermonuclear in a matter of months or even, if a wide consensus of experts is to be believed, weeks.
We can now eliminate option (a). The US-Israeli attacks caused serious damage but failed to cripple Iranian fighting capacity, or to bring its people out on the streets against a theocratic leadership.
Specifically:
- Cyber attacks were initially successful in paralysing Iran’s ability to defend itself (raising questions as to how this could have been allowed given both their predictability and the Islamic Republic’s de facto alliance with two superpowers) but air defences were back up and running within eight hours.
- Decapitation strikes, which demolished an apartment block and slaughtered civilians by the score to take out two senior IRGC commanders, have not seriously weakened – as last year’s assassinations of a similarly infiltrated Hezbollah did – Iran’s capacity to strike back.
- Missile launchers remain largely intact; Iran having spent decades preparing for just such an attack by Israel or its Washington master, and having made widespread use of decoys to soak up Israel’s finite materiel while Iran’s capacity to counterattack from silos deep in the mountains and widely dispersed has not been disabled or even measurably impaired.
- As established last year with True Promise 1 and 2, Iron Dome and David’s Sling, hitherto thought to allow the ethno-state to strike without fear of retaliation, can be overwhelmed by swarm attacks mixing old ordnance with new, cheap drones with hypersonic missiles. All of which Iran not only has in abundance but, more ominously for a tiny settler regime whose gamble of Friday the 13th now looks recklessly misconceived, can with a little help from its friends outproduce the neoliberally deindustrialised West – even when supplies to another proxy are, to the dismay of Mr Zelensky, redirected to one more valued.
- A proud nation criminally betrayed has rallied, whatever its criticisms and resentments of its leadership, behind the same.
In short, Israel’s use of shock, awe and blitzkreig (or more precisely America’s use of Israel) has failed. The colonial settlers are hurting in ways they are unaccustomed to hurting. Worse, they have picked a fight they cannot win. Overly reliant on chutzpah, Israel lacks the capacity for a war of slow attrition with a larger adversary backed by Russia and China, neither of which can allow Tehran to go the way of Baghdad, Tripoli and Damascus.
One of the ethno-state’s two aces, its nuclear status, cannot be played without assuring its own annihilation; though in extremis that may not stay the hand of the death cultists in Washington or even the Knesset.
The other, as two US carrier groups steam once more to the region, is America. But the dice the latter allowed its client to roll in the early hours of Friday have landed closer to snake eyes than double six. For the US deep state such setbacks can normally – in a Kazakhstan, say, or even a Georgia – be absorbed with a win-some/lose-some shrug, as it turns to other squares on the geopolitical chessboard. But with the stakes so high for the major players, and the whole wide world watching, these are far from normal circumstances. An empire is unravelling in real time.
And while that deep state calls the long plays, surface turbulence in the duopoly masquerading as a democracy can at critical junctures shift things decisively. For Mr Trump this is a disaster. A long and drawn out war in the Middle East, with flag draped coffins coming home in quantity, will cost him his America First support base. Then again, his planet sized ego can hardly relish the prospect of going down in history as the POTUS who hung Israel out to dry. Mr Putin’s offer to mediate will have been tempting, but would the Neocons – as currently personified by the odious Lindsey Graham – allow that?
Meanwhile the trouble with sending in the fleet is that if the intimidation value isn’t up to snuff – as it will not be here – you look a prize prat unless you use it. Go figure.
* * *
As Lowkey observes here……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Heo6QxpGWyQ&ab_channel=DoubleDownNews
……some of those eyes also need to be focused on the role and activity of Arab nations in all this.
Indeed. Jordan, its air defences used to counter True Promise 3, is a microcosm of an Arab Street divided and ruled first by Britain and France, now by the US. As with Saudi Arabia, its monarch has zero legitimacy and was imposed by Western fiat. Abdullah II, like his father Hussain, is especially loathed when a big section of those he rules are Palestinians driven out in ’48.
A post dedicated to that Arab Street is required, and you’re the second person today to point me to Lowkey on DDN. Watch this space.
War is a feature not a flaw. This direction is nothing but the best case scenario for the financial elite of the world which happens to be connected to Israel! I’m of the belief that the most recent leak or theft of classified documents from Israel must have been a game changer for all involved. I fear the west is going to go all in for this reason. The arguments stink to high heaven and are reminiscent of the lies told regarding both Afghanistan and Iraq.
I’m a financial person and trading markets has been my passion. Market behavior the past 5 months has been like nothing I have ever witnessed before. I’m sure I’m not the only one to have made this conclusion. It’s always about the money!
C
Agreed. That’s why I often tune into financial market experts like Lena Petrova and Alex Krainer. Both, Alex especially, have their ideological biases and blind spots but don’t we all? It’s hard but vital to take in a wide range of sources, see how their analyses stand up in light of events, and always triangulate.
Hi Phil,
Thanks for the posts,
The angle I’m still considering is the Straits of Hormuz. China especially cannot afford to lose so quickly, 20% of it’s oil being blocked.
I know from what market shares I can find, that many countries and this is true of Israel, are suffering shortages because of the Yemen blockade. China, thus, could negotiate a bi-lateral response with Iran, regarding safe access through the Hormuz strait and can even aid such a solution that would imperil the US trade.
China has outpaced the US in shipbuilding by a grand scale and has the manpower to afford Iran bases, bombs and bodies(live ones)if required without actually firing a shot themselves.
This kind of scenario lends itself to China to be uniquely placed to facilitate Iran’s friendly trade. I doubt even stupid Trump would want to attack a Chinese ship carrying supplies. Furthermore China also has an ace with the container hub port of Shanghai where the vast majority of container ships dock.
Coupled with the Yemen blockade of the Red Sea ports, it would be a hat trick if Iran and the axis of resistance could pull it off. Probably the reason the UAE is desperate to get it’s foot in the door with negotiations between Iran and USrael.
Perhaps it’s just my “can do” attitude rearing it’s silly head, but one can hope!
Regards,
Susan
Me too Susan. (And as for China’s oil supply through the Strait, I’ve read 30% and most often 50%.) Hormuz is the most immediate and starkly material of many reasons China, Russia and even the DPRK cannot allow regime change in Tehran. As Dave Hansell says this morning apropos my most recent post:
In the medium and long term everything favours the axis of resistance. But in the here and now we have the crazies in Washington and the Knesset …
I’m picking up chatter about the Straits of Hormuz being either blocked off by tankers….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8OehKFRb5U
…..or mined (from a different source report) with the intention of boxing in US navy assets at US bases in Bahrain.
The military report in that link suggests that one of the tankers which collided (and is/was on fire) in the Straits of Hormuz was part of the Russian Shadow fleet, whilst at the same time also suggesting it was scuttled by Iranian and Russian Special Forces for that purpose?
Moving on, Larry Johnson this morning…..
….opines that ‘something happened’ between Trumps bellicose statements yesterday after leaving the Geriatic-7 meeting and today:
“Looks like Donald Trump flinched and decided to postpone bombing Iran… at least for the next 24 hours. This iconic song from Buffalo Springfield captures the current state of affairs:”
Perhaps someone – and it certainly would not be Oprah – took the US Deep State for a walk in the park overnight? Maybe a submarine or two surfaced off the Eastern and Western seaboards of the USA as part of a Teddy Roosevelt (‘speak softly and carry a big stick’) tribute act?
It would seem the Chinese…….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ne3DDFilvf4&ab_channel=TimesNowWorld
….and the Russians….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T3dys5cAaE&ab_channel=HindustanTimes
…..are pursuing some kind of approach.
It would seem from what I have been reading all over the globe, that many countries are angry with Israel, even angrier with it’s enablers(the US and UK in particular)and very supportive of Iran.
The ships that are heading round the cape have extra weeks of fuel, insurance costs, and the stevedores are being run ragged and still can’t offload apace with the demand.
Israel is running out of missiles and even it’s much touted “air superiority” is in jeopardy and because the US stocks are low, they can’t actually resupply Israel.
It’s not just chatter, much officialdom is getting in on the act as well. The ships clogging Bahrain can’t move, they need fuel, can’t get the extra insurance cover and can’t meet their contract terms, it would seem all hell has broken loose.
One awful consequence of Israel’s defence munitions shortages is that they will concentrate all their efforts on protecting their military and leaving the civilians to weather the storm and shortages.
Such is war. Now the Israelis will have first hand understanding, albeit limited, of what the Palestinians have suffered.
Today I filled up my 5 gallons fuel can and I’ll be stocking up on other things as well. As a country that enables the Zionist monster, we’ll get no sympathy if we get into difficulties.
Some of the latest videos coming out of Israel do not bode well:
https://skwawkbox.org/2025/06/19/settlers-flee-israel-for-home-as-daylight-reveals-devastation-and-iranian-strikes-continue/
The eighth video in the above link about dual nationals (Israeli/US) fleeing on luxury vessels to Cyprus says a lot more than even the videos showing missile damage to the Israeli Stock Exchange or diamond centre in the latest Iranian missile salvos targeting the Israeli economy. Though I doubt it will ever be shown by any Western Corporate media.
Who will doubtless be switching – or should that be violently twitching – over the impact of Iranian intentions towards the Straits of Hormuz:
https://skwawkbox.org/2025/06/18/video-new-iranian-missile-fired-at-israel-as-iran-announces-restriction-of-vital-hormuz-oil-tanker-passage/
“Iran has announced that for at least a hundred days starting from tomorrow (19 June), vessels carrying oil and liquid gas through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz will only be allowed to pass with Iran’s permission. A statement relayed by a former minister said:
If this policy is implemented swiftly, it will be decisive. Delaying it means prolonging the war on our own soil. Trump’s war must be ended through combined economic and security pressure.
The twenty-one mile wide Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most crucial potential choke-point for oil and natural gas connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. It carries 20% of the world’s daily oil and 25% of its liquid natural gas. Iran controls the whole northern coast of the strait and can impede or prevent the passage of ships.”
Meanwhile, the Israeli proxy of the ethno-supremicist “Garden” – doing what Blackrock Mertz described yesterday as the West’s dirty work – continues to mass slaughter brown skinned people:
https://skwawkbox.org/2025/06/19/analysis-of-israels-figures-shows-it-murdered-377000-palestinians-during-genocide-so-far-half-of-them-kids/
“A new report by Harvard University has confirmed what opponents of Israel’s genocide in Gaza have always known: that the number of people murdered by Israel in Gaza far exceeds the official death toll and that Israel’s propaganda attempts to discredit even the official toll as exaggerated are a shameful lie.
The official death toll in Gaza of just under60,000 so far was always clearly an under-estimate, because the Gaza health ministry only counts bodies recovered and brought to a hospital. Victims buried under rubble or blown apart with their few remains gathered into plastic bags are not included.
But Yaakov Garb’s report for Harvard Dataverse has analysed the Israeli military’s own data and combined these with careful spatial mapping to reveal a demographic horror story: almost 400,000 people – at least 377,000 – have disappeared from Gaza’s pre-genocide population of 2.227 million, reducing it to 1.85 million when measured for the study.”
The West is going to pay a high price for this infamy.
“The West is going to pay a high price for this infamy.”
As you say. We deserve it, we’ve inherited the sins of our forefathers and a reckoning is due for our continued adherence to those sins. I won’t be immune either no matter my disgust for our crimes.