The opening image of my post three days ago, What is Hezbollah?
Have I overestimated Hezbollah? (And if so, Iran?) Have I placed too much faith in the confident assessments of men like Scott Ritter, the former UN weapons inspector turned US empire critic who has long assured his followers that the self-avowed Party of God is capable of defeating the Western funded Israeli Defence Force?
Too early to tell, but none of the pundits I follow is in any doubt that Hezbollah – along with a yet to be finalised culling of the innocent, as is the norm in IDF strikes 1 – took a heavy blow on Friday evening. A blow which, as was claimed instantly in Tel Aviv and confirmed the following afternoon by Hezbollah, killed Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
Today being Michaelmas Day – when seventy-two years ago yours truly entered this world and a few millennia earlier, say all three Abrahamic faiths, Archangel Michael expelled Angel Lucifer from Paradise for holding questionable views – I’ll have less time than usual to gather thoughts in a pithily edifying scribble.
Which is just as well when said thoughts are sub-optimally unclear. I’ll therefore, before joining the steel city celebrations in my honour, confine myself to two points plus recommendations for further study.
First, coming hard on the heels of other strikes on Hezbollah, Hamas and IRGC commanders – by an IDF which cares not one whit for the untermensch civilian fallout – this is a strategic blow whose magnitude has yet to emerge. It is also a psychological blow, showing how far Hezbollah and in all likelihood Iran have been penetrated by Israeli intelligence. Of course, this will add to the ubermensch aura in which Israel’s Hasbara Industry revels. The reality is grubbily mundane.
Israel, as Stephen Gowans among others has cogently argued, is an outpost for imperialism in an oil rich region. A region all the more significant for standing between the West and a Eurasia perceived as a threat by five centuries of European colonial strategists, and some half century of US imperialists. 2 Israel has a very special role in dividing the Middle East but some aspects are common to all colonial and neocolonial rule of the global south. Here’s Simplicius the Thinker, writing today and but lightly edited here:
Many are now celebrating that Israel has achieved an ‘extraordinary decapitation’ of Hezbollah’s entire leadership in sequence: first “eliminating” the low echelon footsoldiers via the pager attack, then higher ups with radios and Hollywood-like missile strikes, all the way up to a final decapitating attack on the top heads themselves.
This is meant to be an unprecedented show of precision and planning the likes of which the world has never seen before …
… But just as North Korea has been starved by decades of sanctions [enabling South Korea to present as a shining example of the superiority of capitalism] so does Israel have unfair economic advantages over its neighbours … By keeping those neighbours poor with the help of the predatory Western economic model – which includes the dollar reserve currency dominion 3 – Israel can leverage money in artificially impoverished nations like Lebanon and even Iran to buy turncoat agents. Israel, flush with endless billions from the taxpayers of the world’s richest nations, can bribe the desperate and poor of these countries to provide intelligence. This is likely how the locations of Nasrallah, Haniyeh, and others were obtained.
Second, the murder and “collateral damage” dramatically raise – as a halfway decent Guardian piece by Patrick Wintour yesterday argues – the stakes. As I and others have been saying all along, for reasons embodied in but not confined to the personal needs of a man facing serious jail time when he leaves office – hence a prisoner of men even more eschatologically extreme in the cabinet he nominally heads – Israel needs to escalate its war. All its moves since October 8, with Friday’s strike simply the latest, are calculated to elicit a Tehran response which, since its outpost in the region could be annihilated in a hot war with Iran, would draw in the US.
The steps are simple, even if the levels of uncertainty are not:
- Will Iran be provoked into a counterstrike? If it is not, will tensions in the Resistance Axis – as Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah mutter about Tehran being all mouth and no trousers – be aggravated? Conversely, if it is …
- … will the USA be drawn in? And if it is …
- … how will Russia and China, de facto partners of Iran, respond?
WW3 in three easy moves.
I’ll close with one read and two videos on strategic aspects …
- The aforementioned Simplicius. It’s a mark of the gravity of the situation that this pundit, whose daily offerings seldom stray from Ukraine, has today weighed in on Friday’s strike on Beirut. A mark too of where he stands that he entitles his post, Israel’s Short-Lived Glory Celebrated by Kneejerk Polemicists …
- The Duran. Here the two Alexes, in a thirteen minute podcast to my knowledge the first non corporate analysis of the event, offer their usual high standard of insight, not least on rifts within the Resistance Axis over Iran’s refusal so far – cowardly betrayal, grown-up aversion to WW3, or playing a long game? – to punish the terrorist state.
- Owen Jones with Dutch-Palestinian Analyst, Mouin Rabbani. NB I’ve listened to only twenty-five minutes, roughly half, of this. Being averse to wiping egg from face, I’m leery of recommending a source I haven’t fully consulted. Here I make an exception given that (a) what I have heard is worth sharing, (b) for all my criticisms of Owen, he’s been superb on Palestine, especially since October 7, and (c) I need to dash off for the Michaelmas celebrations.
… and two reads on the morality:
- Caitlin Johnstone today: Israel Isn’t Attacking Because It Was Attacked, It’s Attacking Because It Got An Excuse
- Jonathan Cook yesterday: In killing Nasrallah, Israel chose to open the gates of hell. We’ll all pay the price
* * *
- The death count is climbing, with 92 the highest I’ve seen so far. Several commentators scorn Israel’s characteristically facile argument that Hezbollah, in placing its command centre in central Beirut, made Lebanese civilians its human shield. This is depraved in its disingenuity. All states site their military HQs close to capitals or other major population centres. Where is the IDF command centre if not downtown Tel Aviv?
- Establishing Israel as a beachhead in the Middle East was a British project abetted by France. Washington did not seriously involve itself until the OPEC crises of 1972-3.
- For more on what Simplicius means by a “predatory Western economic model which includes the dollar reserve currency dominion”, see Bryan Gocke’s guest post of February last year, Who pays for the US war machine? Though its focus is armaments, a dollar dominance slowly weakening has wider ramifications.
Happy Birthday Phil! I have something to share for you to congratulate yourself. As you know I go in for underground personal guerrilla war tactics. As an old feminist the personal is political and all that. I have been engaging in deep conversations with Jewish friends exploring some of the hidden dynamics of all this. One old friend was adamant Israel had to defend itself – the usual arguments. Among various YouTube’s, articles etc. I sent her some of your writings. It has been a complete shock to her to hear an alternative view. Her eyes have been opened and she is now talking far more explicitly and directly than I ever could to her Jewish family and friends. So once again – thank you Phil for your hard work! And now I hope you have a lovely day celebrating your arrival on planet Earth all those years ago – though perhaps don’t dwell on exactly how long ago! Love from us both from Scotland
You made my day Anne!
Alistair Crooke on form with Larry Johnson…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3Vrf5c-umY&ab_channel=CounterCurrents
I’ll check it out Dave. Thanks for this and your many other citations.
Not sure that we have overestimated Hezbollah, but may have over estimated Netanyahu’s desperation. As the Alexs point out, Israel does not have to put troops on the ground (which by all accounts would play into Hezbollah’s hands) to pressurise Iran.
Agreed.
I for one find it stupendous to comment on the refrain Iran has shown as being “All mouth and no trousers”.
If not for the common sense and adult thinking of Iran’s leaders, we would by now have the answer to the Duran’s questions above.
Should Iran be proactive and retaliatory, the Middle East could well go up in flames.
Anybody who thinks that Iran should start what could be WW3 needs their head examined.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that both Russia and China will be in negotiations as to how to play their long game in a very short space of time should the US typical overreach extend to involvement against Iran.
Russia is currently mired in Ukraine for the moment and perhaps this is why Iran has been hesitant about all out war against Israel and Syria is in no position to help either. China I don’t know about, which is rather worrying either way. I really don’t want to see the long suffering Iranians wiped off the map.
The ramifications for the western countries are obvious even if their citizens are clueless(as is their so-called incompetent and moronic governance) and for all we know the US would rather sink than be seen as NOT the leaders and greatest power in the world and in which case it would not care a jot how many dead were left standing as long as their upper echelon survive. After all, who could challenge them if they were unable to pay their $36 Trillion dollar debt?
I have pondered enough on where Israel is really going with it’s genocide of the Palestinians and attacks against Syria and now Lebanon, I’ll leave any further machinations to Simplicius and Dmitry Orlov(and you of course).
Cheers for now and enjoy your birthday.
Susan 🙂
An Iranian friend of some four decades, a man who left his native Tehran at the time of the clericalist takeover in 1979 and no friend of the ayatollahs, told me years ago in tones grudging admiration that the beardies in funny turbans are arch pragmatists. I’m still inclined to the “long game” thesis. There are grounds for saying Tehran’s insistence on responding to the terrorist state’s provocations only when good and ready exerts its own psychological pressure on Israel.
On the other hand there do indeed appear to have been strong words delivered to Tehran by the three exasperated aitches …
Happy Birthday, Phil!
Thanks man!
“and for all we know the US would rather sink than be seen as NOT the leaders and greatest power in the world”
Whilst that remains a valid observation, there is also a view which goes further in arguing that the Western Oligarchs running this policy would rather see the whole planet go under if they cannot get their own way.
Phil, along with others, has homed in on the argument presented by Simplicious about Western Hegemony being the (implied) key factor in the ability of Israel to operate in the way it does.
However, it seems reasonable to argue that the more pertinent quote in that article – which I would suggest Simplicious has to a degree misinterpreted – is that of the preceding paragraph from Alexander Dugin:
“”It is unpleasant to admit, but Israel’s radical determination in the ruthless destruction of its enemies clearly contrasts with the behavior of not only these enemies, but also ourselves in relations with the Kyiv regime. Israel is playing ahead, and it is now clear that it provoked Hamas to attack, which did not bring any fruits to the Resistance at all, and Israel managed to destroy the leadership of the forces antagonistic to it in the Middle East and easily carry out a large-scale genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. Again – whoever is faster is right. Whoever acts more decisively and recklessly wins. But we are cautious and constantly wavering. By the way, Iran is the same. This is a road to nowhere. Gaza is gone. Hamas’s leadership is gone. Now Hezbollah’s leadership is gone. And Iranian President Raisi is gone. And his pager is gone. But Zelensky is here. And Kyiv stands as if nothing had happened. We either enter the game for real, or… I don’t want to think about the second option. But in modern wars, timing, speed, dromocracy decide everything. The Zionists act quickly, ahead of the curve. Boldly. And they win. That’s what we should do.” – Alexander Dugin”
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Simplucios counters with the following:
““Whoever acts more decisively and recklessly wins.” What did Israel win, exactly? You don’t “win” by killing a figurehead. Would Russia “win” by killing Zelensky in a strike?”
Totally missing the point that:
(a) it is not just a single figurehead but several layers of top leadership cadres along with significant numbers of military and civil personnel which have been successfully eliminated.
Seriously degrading the organisation and its ability to function effectively.
One of today’s recent Duran videos claims that Nasrullah’s replacement has already been killed. Requiring a second replacement. Which indicates the level of damage being inflicted on the organisational effectiveness of the resistance. An obvious prelude necessary for a successful invasion and annexation of Lebanon.
Therefore;
(b) In an unfolding, dynamic and developing situation it is far too early to conclude, as Simplicious implies, that Israel has not actually won anything as yet. The lack of response from Iran is already being reported as causing friction between Hezbollah and Iran. Playing into Israel’s hands. Heads I win, tails you lose.
Consequently, it is somewhat premature to conclude that, despite Hezbollah continuing to hit targets in Israel via its missile arsenal, the level of degradation inflicted is still not serious enough to not successfully prevent an Israeli takeover of Lebanon without serious levels of assistance from Iran and/or other players in the region.
(c) Why would the Russians want to take out Zelensky when he is making so many mistakes which benefit the Russian SMO? Dugin is clearly using this as a mere example rather than a suggestion.
Dugin’s point seems more general than specific to Ukraine. That the moral and legal resistance by the global majority against the sociopath’s of Western oligarchies and colonial hegemony are at an even bigger disadvantage than that identified by Simplicius in his subsequent argument.
This being a self-imposed disadvantage in that they are ceding permanent advantage by operating to Marquis of Queensbury Rules against a bunch of sociopath’s who are intent on completely eradicating anyone, including from within their own societies, who they deem ‘not one of them’ by any and every means available.
What Dugin’s argument seems to amount to is that the situation is actually one in which if the Global Majority do not quickly find a more effective means to permanently eradicate the parasite threatening global civilisation, with its infantile need to control everything and everybody, that that parasite will eradicate global civilisation and probably life itself.
Being the adult in the room requires that rather than passively waiting until you have been escalated into a corner, a more proactive enforcement of order is urgently required before matters get out of hand.
And this line of argument goes back to an earlier thread on this site which uses the metaphor which goes something along the line of the one left standing in a bar fight is the nutter who is prepared to stick a broken bottle in everyone’s face.
The bottom line is that you cannot reason or negotiate with sociopaths or mad dogs. At some point, survival requires a more robust approach.
Which is possibly why the Russians have, after a process lasting around twelve months, revised their nuclear doctrine.
I’ll be arguing in an imminent post not only the above, but that Israel is indeed what Stephen Gowans called a beachhead for imperialism in the Middle East/Western Asia. Furthermore, that Palestine’s agony cannot be understood without this perspective.
But I’ll also argue, apropos Alastair Crooke in dialogue with Larry Johnson – which you too have heard, Dave – that nor can it be understood without the religious dimension as seen by a fanatical section of Israeli Jews who despise Ashkenazi liberal secularism and look to men like Smotrich and Ben Gvr, whose arming of West Bank settlers to create a private and ultra-fanatical militia add to the picture of Bibi boxed in by the eschatologists in his cabinet on the one hand, his criminal venality on the other.
As IDF tanks supplied by we all know who amass on the Lebanese border, the sitch has become very, very frightening.
It maybe that we have underestimated Israel’s ability to use satellite and electronic surveillance provided by the West (with an added dose of AI) to complement on the ground informers in it’s infiltration of Hezbollah’s communication systems and key personnel locations. We may also be overestimating the impact this may have on Hezbollah’s ability to take the fight back to Israel – or so argues Elijah Magnier (a self confessed glass half full person) on Rania Khalek Dispatches.
https://www.youtube.com/live/pKX2Gul90_Y?si=xckmv1FW7zey0ebN
PS happy birthday for yesterday Phil.
I am now off to the wilds to write fiction. Will contact you when back in the steel city.
Israel’s stranglehold on its western satraps (allies) is apparently resolute and implacable. These states led by the US have supported Israeli terrorism and genocide to a point of no return they cannot stop and emboldened by the attacks on Lebanon, the assassination of the Hezbollah leadership and the fact that the Israeli State can act with almost total impunity in pursuit of a greater Israel, they now believe or want to believe that this moment is the opportunity to destroy Hezbollah, degrade Iran (or regime change Iran) and the axis of resistance sufficient to reassert US hegemony in the Middle East. It is not clear whether they will intervene militarily to support Israel in a regional war but have no doubt they will feel altogether justified by a military victory for Israel and the West. All this is may be premised on their certainty that Russia can be intimidated or threatened not to intervene on behalf of Iran and the axis of resistance. As the barbarity of Israel escalates and the abject complicity of the West deepens we can expect the UK ruling class to dispose the polity’s monopoly of violence and coercion to suppress all resistance to imperialism and the Israeli settler colonial project in line with PM Starmers’s vocation to precipitate WW3 in defence of a Ukrainian victory over Russia.