Alert, Friday June 13: what follows was posted late last night, before Israel’s strikes on Iran in the early hours of today.
Yesterday Jeff Bezos’s WashPo ran this:
June 12, 2025
Also yesterday, apropos US-Israeli verbal threats on Iran, I wrote:
Three points. One, Israel is flailing with heightened recklessness. A truth apparent from the start of the genocide – that with no off-ramp, the ethno-state’s sole chance of survival is to bring the US into a wider war – applies now with greater force. Two, in this thirst for epic confrontation with Iran, Israel is in accord not only with Christian Zionism, and other elements of America’s far Right, but with the more structural needs of a waning hegemon similarly running out of options. Three, it is vanishingly unlikely that a US-Israeli attack on Iran could succeed by conventional means, but to conclude on this basis that it therefore will not happen is to misread both the severity of empire crisis, and the otherwise unthinkable measures those at its helm might be prepared to take.
I do not say it will happen, simply that none of the known facts enable us to rule it out – least of all on the ground that the consequences would be catastrophic.
Iran in the empire’s cross-hairs
The night before had seen Trump envoy Steve Witkoff at a New York City fund-raiser to support emergency medical services in Israel (!) Attended by former Mossad director Yossi Cohen, and casino billionaire Zionist Miriam Adelson, it raised $18 million.
Here’s what Mr Witkoff said:
June 12, 2025
How a nuclear Iran could pose an existential threat to Americans, as opposed to a check on the plans of US elites to maintain and extend dominance over the Middle East, is for the birds, but that ominous “whatever the costs” – even if empty threat, mind-game or feeler – underscores:
… both the severity of empire crisis, and otherwise unthinkable measures those at its helm might be prepared to take
Here’s a man I take seriously on such things. A regular guest of Judge Napolitano, former British diplomat Alastair Crooke was again on the show yesterday evening. After discussing the high likelihood, touched on in my June 3 post, of MI6 involvement in the June 1 terrorist attacks which killed Russian civilians, Alastair turns at 08:58 to escalating tensions over Iran’s uranium enrichment. His range, depth and clarity leave me with little to add, except for a point I’ve made several times, most recently three days ago in War on Iran? A monumental folly!
China, half of whose oil passes through the Hormuz Strait, could not stand idly by in the face of attempted regime change in the Islamic Republic.
For different but complementary reasons, neither could Russia or for that matter the DPRK. But before I go down that road, its logical endpoint WW3, let’s hear Alastair Crooke on Iran’s own capabilities in the face of US-Israeli attacks. And while we’re at it, on how counterproductive the crude threats from Washington and Tel Aviv have been – as evidenced by the fact that, Iran’s legitimate civilian needs for enriched uranium aside, sixty-nine percent of Iranians now want a thermonuclear deterrent.
* * *
The world is unglued. What comes of this developing war is beyond my comprehension. Save only for a few rational people in my life and a scant few places where I can connect with others whom share morality and basic human decency my emotional sate would be void.
Phil, thank you for maintaining this small but significant space.
C
As you’ll have noticed, C, this morning’s news is chilling.
In light of the developing news…..
…….https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/special-bulletin-israel-launches
….it would seem reasonable to anticipate a rush to the petrol pumps and supermarkets this morning across the collective worst.
As a number of BTL observations on Larry Johnson’s site note…..
https://sonar21.com/israel-attacks-iran/
“Weapons launched from US controlled Iraqi airspace & aerial refuelling by US planes out of Qatar. ”
“The Zionists used US controlled Iraqi airspace to launch missiles.”
“Iran is being attacked by US aircraft, US missiles, US bombs, US electronic warfare, US guidence using US satelites, US inteligence, and US money. How the hell do not get involved in something you are 100% involved in from the begining?”
…..the notion that the US – along with the rest of the West is ‘not involved’ does not bear serious scrutiny.
Events have overtaken me! So far I’ve read only the Simplicius piece you cite, and Andrew Korybko’s post this morning. The latter is vastly less upbeat about Iran’s defensive capabilities than Alastair Crooke is – time will tell, and possibly very quickly, who is right – but he concludes with this:
I’ll be digesting further news and analyses as the day progresses …
Dropsite News……
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-attacks-iran-promising-full-scale-military-operation/
….has this observation:
“Following serious Israeli attacks on its nuclear program, Iran is now faced with a choice between capitulating, retaliating, or withdrawing from the NPT and dashing towards a nuclear weapon. Given the nature of Iran’s military capabilities, which are based on a mix of sponsorship of non-state militia groups who wage sub-conventional warfare one one hand, and a massive fleet of ballistic and hypersonic missiles on the other, Iran’s ability to retaliate in a measured way that creates a deterrent without escalating the situation to a major war is limited.
“Iran’s strike capabilities are heavily optimized for two scenarios: low-key operations below the threshold of major military campaigns, or an all-in confrontation. Last April, its attack was very performative, whereas in October they decided to showcase some of their higher-end capabilities,” said Shahryar Pasandideh, a security analyst focused on defense issues. “But this time if Israel attacks Iran, the Iranians may retaliate by going for a qualitatively different set of targets.”
Iran may also choose not to retaliate in a sustained manner to Israel’s attacks if it decides instead that a better retaliation would be withdrawing from the NPT, expelling nuclear inspectors, and pursuing a nuclear weapon. That would mean that Iran’s immediate kinetic reaction may be limited, while the country prepares instead to develop a bomb outside of international monitoring.
“If there are far-reaching and non-symbolic attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, and the Iranians decide to go for nuclear breakout in response, it doesn’t make much sense to do sustained retaliatory missile attacks,” added Pasandideh. “It comes back to strike capabilities. If you are going to pursue a nuclear weapon in response to being attacked, it would be better to limit your retaliation to a one or two day campaign of missile strikes, and then husband the rest of your forces for a period of months or a year until you have rebuilt what you lost and are in a position to break out with a nuclear weapon.””
Don’t know what to say. Or think. Nightmare scenario. Deadly power in the hands of the unhinged.
Unhinged is right. When I began political blogging I rationed my use of the term, “ruling class”. Such is the depth and range of media brainwashing that, for all its easily proven accuracy, the r-word raises eyebrows in “sophisticated” circles.
One alternative I found useful was “the criminally insane”.
Yes criminally insane indeed. Talking about the criminally insane, many years ago I did a stint as a temp secretary at one of the Broadmoor type places where the criminally insane serving life for murder and the like were sent. This one housed the moors murderer.
Well anyway I think some of those patients were less unhinged than Netanyahu & Co.
If I believed in God I’d pray, but what can you do?
Push back is all