Iranian nukes? It’s regime change, stupid!

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In the early hours of today, Israel, with every sign not just of US approval but its involvement at all stages of the planning …

I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.

I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.

Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!

There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.

Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!

US President Trump at 11:16, June 13, on his Truth Social platform ¹

… declared war on Iran in a way that brings the planet palpably closer to world war three. We should all pay close attention. Given my mistrust, for reasons set out many times on this site, of corporate Western media ability to speak truthfully on matters so critical to power, I urge one and all to look wider than Guardian, Economist and BBC, CNN and Washington Post.

We’re still at the fog of war stage, with the full impact of Israel’s criminal recklessness chutzpah  yet to make itself known, but this much seems clear:

• The strikes, which Israel assures us are ongoing, cannot – for reasons given in my June 10 post, War on Iran? A monumental folly! – halt Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But that was never more than a pretext. The goal is regime change, unachievable without overt US involvement; global consequences be damned.
• Decapitation strikes being a favoured tactic of the genocidal state, today’s are known to have killed, besides children – nothing new there – high ranking soldiers including IRGC commander General Hossein Salami, and six senior nuclear scientists. This gives further credence to suggestions that Iranian counterintelligence is parlous – and if Mossad can penetrate the highest levels of military command, why not those enrichment facilities too, dispersed though they may be and half a mile underground? – and that drones used were already inside Iran.
• Iran’s air defences have been shown to be weaker than hitherto believed. (Did she have the Russian supplied S-300s? If so, how many, and why not the S-400 system?) But given that Iran’s True Promise strike last October punctured the Israeli myth of Iron Dome and David’s Sling rendering the ethno-state immune, what we’re left with is the truth that in today’s age of drones and hypersonic missiles, no country has full aerial protection. Just ask the Russians, their strategic bombers hit by Ukrainian drones lorried over the border at the start of this already momentous month.
• Tehran now has three response options: (a) roll over and accept Israeli superiority in ways that spell regime change – crown jewel of the seven nations plan revealed 22 years ago to General Wesley Clark on the eve of the criminal war on Iraq; (b) respond economically and/or militarily in ways that seriously damage Israeli and Western interests, so handing to Israel what it has always sought: hot war, with America overtly onboard, regardless of the potential to drag in China and Russia; (c) go thermonuclear in a matter of months or even, if a wide consensus of experts is to be believed, weeks.

In light of these considerations, and a ratio of unknowns to knowns in the stratosphere, might I recommend, with little additional comment, three sources? The first two are podcasts – with the second close to two hours but, being a Q & A, exitable at any point – while the third is a written piece on Naked Capitalism:

Scott Ritter appearing on a special edition of Judge Andrew Napolitano

Alexander Mercouris and Alex Christoforou at the Duran

As for the Naked Capitalism piece, the comments below the line are at least as valuable as the piece proper. This for instance from PlutoniumKen:

Far too early for any clear assessment or conclusion, but a number of factors are clear:

As with the attacks on Hizbollah, Israel has a very formidable intelligence advantage – they seem to have successfully killed at least half a dozen of the most senior military figures. It seems certain that this was not a pure airstrike – they have assets within Iran, probably drones/small cruise missiles. Some may have been brought in over the border from the north (Armenia/Azerbaijan). Israel also likely has allies in the form of various sunni/jihadist groups either in Iran or on the Iranian/Syrian border.

It seems that the entire Iranian air defence system has been at least temporarily neutralised, including the S-300 systems. There does not seem to have been any significant response. They may also have neutralised much of Irans immediate ‘first response’ capacity (i.e. those missiles out on the road or readied for immediate launch). Iran would almost certainly have had a plan to launch immediate response missiles against Israeli airfields in order to catch assets out in the open on the return from strikes – there is no evidence so far that this has happened.

It seems likely, but not certain yet, that much of Iranians missile assets have been damaged or temporarily neutralised within their bunkers (most likely strikes have damaged the entrances, ensuring it may take hours or days before they can be used).

The pattern of attacks has been at least partly predicted by some open source commentators. The core nuclear sites cannot be destroyed in an immediate attack and were almost certainly not part of this strike. The strikes would have focused on neutralising all ‘open’ air defences and the less protected elements of the supply chain for missiles and nukes. Hitting the better protected ‘core’ targets would always be a longer term objective, one only pursued after air defences have been neutralized. Most likely, Israel intends on dragging the US in so that this can be done with larger bunker busters. Initial strikes would have focused on the road accesses and air vents of any underground facilities in order to delay any response. However, given that the Israelis clearly have high level intelligence assets within Iran (impossible to have killed so many high level leaders without this), it can’t be ruled out that they could have found vulnerable targets even with the underground facilities. Even the deepest bunker has to open its doors sometimes.

And finally, it seems Trump can’t keep his big mouth shut. He has given Iran all the ammunition they need to justify an immediate strike against US assets in the region. The big question is whether this will involve assets in KSA or the Gulf.

Try to have a good weekend, folks.

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1. No one above six years of age will read the denial by US Secretary of State Marc Rubio, flatly contradicted by his boss’s post, as other than that the Trump administration can’t be bothered to get its plausible deniability story straight.