Brian Berletic: “this ‘ceasefire’ is a trap”

Guardian, April 8 2026

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So, Persian civilisation won’t be ending quite yet. I’m featuring four reactions – with a fifth likely later today – to this morning’s news. Having had no time to gather my own thoughts, I add little in the way of comment but expect to be revisiting this in days to come.

Top of my inbox was Caitlin Johnstone:

The empire backs down, for now

Trump has announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran after previously threatening to exterminate their “entire civilization”, citing “a 10 point proposal from Iran” as the reason for the climb-down.

Trump and his cronies are spinning this as a colossal victory for the United States and framing Tehran’s 10-point plan as a major capitulation to the president’s threats. But some reporters are noting that Iran has had the same terms on the table for weeks — which would mean that it is in fact the White House who is backing down.

Hours before the president’s announcement, Drop Site’s Ryan Grim posted a TikTok video arguing that Trump could save face while walking back from his apocalyptic threats by simply accepting Iran’s 10-point peace plan and acting like it’s a new proposal the Iranians had only just put forward. Grim argued that Trump could get away with this because the western media have been completely ignoring Iran’s stated terms for a ceasefire this entire time.

This is nuts, Trump really did do exactly what Ryan Grim suggested he do hours earlier: pretend Iran’s ten-point plan is a new proposal, counting on the fact that the media hasn’t been reporting on Iran’s demands to make it look like a new offer Tehran put forward in desperation.

Interestingly, this appears to have been precisely what Trump wound up doing. After previously rejecting Iran’s proposals as “not good enough”, the president turned around and framed the Iranian offer as a brand new response to the pressures his administration was able to impose upon them …

Read in full …

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Nor far below was Andrew Korybko. Like Caitlin, he keeps his posts short:

First Impressions Of The Surprise US-Iranian Ceasefire

The victor [can?] only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan.

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the details of which haven’t been confirmed by both, that averted Trump’s threat to destroy Iran, The alleged statement by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that CNN and others shared was condemned as fake by Trump, who shared Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s vague X post on his Truth Social account instead. Whatever the truth about the terms may be, US-Iranian talks will resume in Islamabad on Friday. Here are five preliminary thoughts:

1. Israel Won’t Wage War On Iran Without The US

While Israel might have wanted the US to achieve their shared goals through military means, it won’t obnoxiously impede the implementation of the ceasefire so as to not risk the the US hanging it out to dry, ergo its acceptance of this decision that thus facilities Friday’s planned talks. If those two’s negotiations stall, then Israel might try to provoke Iran into resuming full-fledged hostilities if it senses that the US would join in, though it’s unlikely to attempt this if it senses that the talks are going well.

2. Multisided Security Guarantees Are Likely Required

Iran requires the US withdrawing its forces from the Gulf, whether to the status quo ante bellum, more than that, or entirely. Meanwhile, the US and Israel demand the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium, at least international monitoring of its nuclear program, and curbs on its missile program at minimum. US sanctions, including secondary ones, could snapback if war resumes. As for the Gulf, the UAE and Israel might become military allies, while the rest of the region militarily consolidates under Saudi leadership.

3. The US Probably Won’t Accept The Petroyuan

The petroyuan, which refers to Iran’s alleged requirement of payment in yuan for safe transit across the strait, probably won’t figure into any peace deal. The US would rather that Iran split payment with Oman in dollars as a form of reparations that would also strengthen the role of the petrodollar than allow the petroyuan to emerge as a competitor. Likewise, the US might also demand that Iran eventually zero out its oil sales to China in exchange for sanctions relief, even if this is only informally agreed to.

4. It Can’t Be Ruled Out That The Talks Are A Trap

Iran never tired of reminding everyone during the conflict that the US attacked it twice already while they were negotiating so it’s possible that it’ll do so a third time too. In this scenario, Trump might have made his threat to destroy Iran without coordinating with Israel and the Gulf Kingdoms, thus leaving them more vulnerable than if they had more time to adequately prepare for Iran’s retaliation. The two-week ceasefire might give them enough even if they prefer that the US doesn’t initiate this sequence.

5. The Damocles’ Sword Of Radical Global Change Remains

On that note, the US has the capability and intent to destroy Iran, which would provoke Iran into doing its utmost to take the Gulf Kingdoms down with it. Afro-Eurasia would then be thrown into chaos as a result of the region’s energy exports being taken offline indefinitely, all while the US withdraws to “Fortress America” in the Western Hemisphere from where it would divide-and-rule the Eastern one. This Damocles’ sword of radical global change therefore still remains and mustn’t be forgotten.

Both sides have declared victory, but the war isn’t over until there’s a US-Iranian agreement to that end, which might prospectively incorporate elements from former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s proposal that he published in Foreign Affairs last week. It’s accordingly premature to declare a victor, which can only be confidently determined upon the conclusion of a peace deal based on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, nuclear program, missile program, oil exports to China, and the petroyuan.

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If Andrew (point 4) can’t rule out the US setting a trap for Iran, Brian Berletic is adamant this is precisely what is happening. In the most closely argued of today’s takes, here is the former US Marine intelligence analyst turned Bangkok vlogger:

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For his part, pacifist Jan Oberg of Transnational Foundation stresses sheer unworkability given the oceans of difference between the main parties. Under the header, Don’t trust this: Trump has either given in to save himself or plays a new two-week game, Jan sets out the points of this ‘ceasefire’ before concluding:

▪ Iran will not open the Hormuz the way Trump makes it conditional: completely, immediately and safely.

▪ the war is not going to end soon, but may change character;

▪ most likely, Israel will not accept any of it – both for its content, Pakistan’s mediation without its participation, and how Trump expresses himself (he does not mention Israel);

▪ if Trump has given in because he recognises that his aggression was the miscalculation of his life (hard to believe that his personality permits that), every sane person will see it as a huge defeat for him and the US Empire – and a bizarrely counterproductive result of his tearing up the JCPOA;

▪ the issue of Iran’s nuclear technology and missiles – all among the reasons he started the war – are not mentioned in the ten points he refers to;

▪ should Israel find itself increasingly excluded, it will seek – if it can – to step up its relentless warfare. If it can’t, it cannot be excluded that it will use nuclear weapons at some point. A leadership that has no qualms about committing a genocide within an apartheid system and is already at war with Lebanon, Syria, Iran and – for obvious reasons – sees enemies everywhere around it because of its Greater Israel Plan, will not, if feeling cornered or existentially threatened, hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons on Iran;

▪ Israel’s status as the only nuclear weapons power in the Middle East – in violations of UN resolutions – is not mentioned in any of the 25 points;

▪ from a peace perspective, there is no larger framework and no external actors for future mediation outside the region; it is pure quackery by people, all the way around, whose focus is on military and ceasefire issues but know nothing about real conflict-resolution and peace-making.

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Today’s instantiation of Yves Smith’s daily reports on the war at Naked Capitalism has yet to appear. I’ll add a link here when it does. Usually that’s late morning, GMT.

Same day update at 14:25. Here’s Yves piece:

Iran War: MSM Ceasefire Reporting Obscures Iran Agreeing to US Capitulation, Trump Depicting Different Deal; Israel Not a Party, States It Will Not Comply; Reason to Doubt Much Hormuz Traffic Increase Soon, Which Would Mean More Supply Pressure

The press is amplifying market-soothing Trump claims that he has cemented a ceasefire “deal” with Iran and is on a path to a resolution of the war. But there are serious differences between what Iran has said it has agreed to, which is a US capitulation. The only concession Iran appears to have made is to somewhat reduce its Strait of Hormuz transit fee. By contrast, Trump depicts the two week ceasefire as a pause in his threat to end Iran as a civilization over a four-hour period, contingent on Iran fully opening the Strait…to which Iran has not agreed.

In addition, the Iran terms call for all hostile action to end, including of Israel against Lebanon. But Israel was not a party to this (non-convergent) agreement and is making minimally compliant noises while also reaffirming its intent to continue ethnic cleansing in Lebanon.

Now this turn of events is admittedly a lot better than where we were 24 hours ago, which was Trump threatening a bombing campaign against Iran that would have produced Iranian retaliation across the Gulf State which was certain, whatever form it took, to damage energy-related infrastructure so severely as to reduce energy output for many many years, risking as many warned, a global deep depression and even potentially a large rollback of living standards across the globe. If nothing else, this seems to signal that Trump is on a path to a durable TACO, as in he really has decided that he needs to find the most face-saving exit he can muster. Perhaps the same way only Nixon could go to China, perhaps only Susie Wiles could produce this shift

But just as Ukraine has agency in ending the war with Russia, so to does Israel in this conflict. This not-really-an-agreement was done over Israel’s head. Israel like Ukraine has ample means to sabotage And that is before getting to the fact that Israel has never honored ceasefires it actually did agree to, save when it used one to make a short pause for its military to regroup before resuming fighting.

And even though the US has high cards to play, such as cutting off ISR support, it has not done that with Ukraine and appears even less likely to do so with Israel.

And we also do not know where the Gulf States stand on this development. The UAE, Kuwait and the Saudis has been on board with escalation, even by some accounts, egging Trump on.

And this view charitably assumes Trump really wants out, as opposed to is simply trying to buy time after the fiasco of what looks like a failed raid on Iran nuclear operations to figure out what to do next. Trump’s default is to try to keep options open and buy for time. He likely still thinks if he can contain paper oil prices and thus hopefully gas and diesel prices in the US, that he can keep pressure of various sorts on to open up anther path. He may not understand that anything less than going back to pretty close to the old normal levels of transit through the Strait of Hormuz very soon means compounding real economy damage. More but less than a high level of traffic would only reduce the rate of intensification of harm …

Continue reading at Naked Capitalism …

Meanwhile, having returned last night from stays with kith and kin in the northwest and northeast of England’s green and pleasant, I find a brand new boiler, fitted the day of our departure, has leaked gallons of water into our kitchen. Must dash: mundanity calls.

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