I ended the previous post – “The planet is hostage to a death cult” – with this …
If Israel is the mad dog, the madman holding the leash is Uncle Sam.
… and in an exchange below the line, cautioned – myself as much as fellow anti-imperialists – against wishful thinking. The air over the Middle East is now thick with the fog of war. In a mire of claims and counterclaims and flat out whoppers, with the ratio of unknowns to knowns in the stratosphere, it’s all too easy to think what we want to think. Empires do not fall with the speed their adversaries believe they will – and perhaps need to believe if they are to attack with the necessary force.
But this much seems clear:
- In the early hours of Friday, Israel – its nuclear status the world’s worst kept secret, and now twenty months into a genocide – attacked a regional power, Iran, claiming that it did so to prevent the latter from developing its own nuclear weapons.
- At least as early as 2003, more precisely 1979, the US was seeking regime change in Iran to reverse the serious blow, to its control of an oil rich and geostrategically vital region, 1 marked by the fall of the Shah.
- A 2009 Brookings Institution paper – Which Path to Persia? – makes remarkably candid proposals to roll back the Iranian Revolution. Chapter 5 – Leave it to Bibi: Allowing or Encouraging an Israeli Military Strike – prescribes what has in fact now happened. 2
- The damage to Iran since Friday has been serious, but less so than Israel had hoped. Counter-strikes are now exacting a higher toll on Israel than it has paid in decades. 3
- US-groomed leaders across the collective West parrot Alice in Wonderland inversions of reality, and once more speak of Israel’s – Israel’s! – right to defend itself.
- America now seems poised to enter directly and overtly. Since the consequences for Iran of backing down would be disastrous, and neither Russia nor China could allow it to go the way of Syria, the world is staring into the abyss of total war.
On that last, an appeal from the well known anti-imperialist Dave DeCamp appeared yesterday on Defend Democracy Now. Here, edited for brevity, is how it begins:
Sources say the Trump administration is poised to enter Israel’s aggressive war against Iran directly. US airstrikes on Iran could begin as soon as Monday.
Please contact the White House by calling (202-456-7041) or sending an email. Tell them you do not want the US to enter this disastrous war, which could lead to heavy American casualties at US bases across the Middle East.
The US has supported the war by reportedly providing Israel with intelligence and helping intercept Iranian missiles and drones, but so far, there have been no direct US attacks on Iran. Iranian officials have warned that Tehran would hit US bases in the region. …
… Netanyahu started the war under the pretext of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
There’s much to commend in Dave’s appeal, and I do hope Americans will write as he urges. But I see a glaring flaw in his understanding, one which could have been avoided had he studied that 2009 Brookings paper. Israel, far from “dragging” the US into its war on Iran, is being used by the US in much the way Ukraine was used and, indeed, the way all “allies” of that dying but deadly empire are used.
Got thirty-two minutes thirty? Here’s Brian Berletic again, speaking yesterday with Danny Haiphong.
* * *
- Oil aside, the significance of the Middle East/Western Asia lies in its location on both east-west and north-south routes through a Eurasian land mass whose power, should it find unity, Western colonialists have feared for half a millennium.
- Parallels between Brookings 2009 and the 2019 Rand Report, Extending Russia – which I quoted at some length apropos the failed US coup in Kazakhstan on the eve of Russia’s SMO in Ukraine – are striking. In the semi privacy of elite conversations few will heed, America’s deep state, as opposed to administrations which come and go, plans outcomes which years or even decades down the road will be given a very different spin for mass consumption.
- As Iran has, Israel is sustaining civilian casualties. I have more than once relayed the Arab saying that all Israeli accusations against its enemies – such as rape, beheaded babies and hostage taking – are in reality confessions. The same could be said of Israel’s charge that those enemies – be they Arab or Persian – use human shields. That Israel’s civilians are dying is due to its locating high value military targets in densely populated areas.
“America now seems poised to enter directly and overtly.”
Larry Johnson, this morning…….
https://sonar21.com/trumps-schizophrenic-middle-east-policy-facilitating-disaster/
……claims, using this telegram link:
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/151817
“The U.S. is now deploying 24 Air Force tankers eastward—an unprecedented surge far beyond any NATO exercise like Trident Juncture.
Trident Juncture 2018 (the largest in recent years):
— The U.S. deployed around 6–8 tankers: KC-135 Stratotankers and KC-10 Extenders, mostly from bases like RAF Mildenhall and Ramstein NOT from US Bases.
— Additional tankers are often contributed by NATO partners (e.g., UK, Netherlands, Germany), bringing the total to 10–15 tankers in theater at MOST.
This isn’t routine. These tankers are strategic force multipliers, enabling long-range ops for bombers, fighters, and ISR assets.”
Given that RAF Mildenhall will be housing some of these assets, not only is the US directly involved but also the UK.
Meanwhile, Prof. Seyed Marandi demolishes the propaganda narrative of the Western media on George Galloway’s channel, starting at around 28 minutes 10 seconds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzAmDFMhuxA&ab_channel=GeorgeGalloway
Effectively arguing that the support for the ethno-supremacist Israeli regime from the West because the West operates from the same ethno-supremacist mindset in which even its own population is considered as “deplorables” or in Marandi’s words, “Amalak”.
One of the areas of discussion in this segment on the MOATS touches on the potential scenario of Iran’s terms for ending the present onslaught on the aggressors?
A consideration which could provide some interesting comment, debate and discussion in the coming period?
“Iran’s terms for ending the present onslaught on the aggressors”
As long as the Yanks don’t directly participate, then Iran will be able to outperform and outnumber the Zios in the rocket exchange. They are reported to have said that they want to eliminate Israels ability to make war, and there is no reason to suspect that they are not capable of massive destruction on the ground. It is also said that they are using old missiles and drones first to soak up the anti-missile defences, leaving the more accurate and effective ones for use later.
As for terms, that will be more difficult. They should probably demand that Israel is subject to the same nuclear regime as Iran is willing to have, that a Palestinian state is recognised, attacks on Gaza and settlements in the West Bank stopped/reversed. I imagine that there will be mass emmigration from Israel after this war, which will help with some of these conditions. Whether there is enough pressure on the west to get such an agreement is another story though.
If the USA (and vassals) participates actively in the attack, then there will be a longer and more involved struggle. US war games predict that the US will lose such a war, but in the meantime oil will rocket in price, and China may insert itself into the equation, (diplomatically and/or by supplying arms or electronics) depending on how much they want to not depend on Russia for the bulk of their oil supply, and whether they see this as a pivotal moment to avert eventual US attacks on China by strengthening Iran to victory. There are reports (unproven) that a number of Chinese cargo planes have gone to Iran very recently. And if China gets involved in that way, there is a good chance that Russia will too (if they haven’t already – who knows what Putin said to Trump in their latest phone call – Trump seemed much more sober afterwards). Any escalation after that is beyond prediction, unlesss you are a Zio-Christian.
There’s a lot of ‘it is said’ and ‘it is reported’ in the above, but it’s a bit early for undisputed facts to appear. Anyway, that’s my best shot. I hope others will add their own.
And another take on all this at:
https://www.indianpunchline.com/middle-east-in-crisis-1/
https://www.indianpunchline.com/middle-east-in-crisis-2/
” . . . the rise of Iran is inevitable — with a population base 10 times bigger than Israel’s, vast mineral resources, a self-sufficient agricultural sector and broad-based industry, innovative progress in technology, big domestic market, highly strategic location and trained manpower.
Iran’s stamina is of a long distance runner, as Iran-Iraq war showed, whereas, Israel’s forte is as sprinter on a 100 metre track. Make no mistake, Israel, a small country with a population of 8 million people will get hollowed out in a protracted war. ”
Although he doesn’t seem to be allowing for US support. However as we’ve seen, the US can’t even keep supplying the Ukraine – in fact there is a report that 100 or so missiles have just been diverted from there to Israel.
The US will ditch Ukraine sooner than Israel, if push comes to shove, but Mr Bhadrakuma is still right. The proxy war in Ukraine has shown severe shortcomings in US and European ability to match Russia’s materiel output in a protracted war.
He misses the bigger point though. Should either junior or senior death cult conclude it cannot win such a war, going nuclear cannot be ruled out. That this will annihilate Israel would not, in extremis, halt US Neocons. Heck, it might not even hold back the ethno-supremacists in the Knesset!
Unfortunately, I can’t argue with any of that.
(:-)
“He misses the bigger point, though. Should either junior or senior death cult conclude it cannot win such a war, going nuclear cannot be ruled out. That this will annihilate Israel would not, in extremis, halt US Neocons.”
It’s not like they haven’t tried before……..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_X3LQfDYrQ&ab_channel=misesmedia
…..because for these people everybody is expendable.