With the Memorandum of Understanding dead in the water, and the US and Iran once more trading blows at levels last seen in March, Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris offer their bird’s eye take on the implications. For a while they’ve been sensibly making shorter podcasts, and this one comes in at 23:37.
Key points:
- US bad faith. All it ever wanted from the MoU was the Strait reopened, and its refusal to stop Israel in Lebanon plus attempts to undermine Iranian control of through traffic have strengthened the hand of “hardliners” – or realists – in Iran, the IRGC in particular, and weakened those seeking diplomatic resolution. As have the tens of millions who turned out for the funeral of their murdered supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
- The chances of returning to the MoU are vanishingly small. As the world, US included, depletes the strategic oil reserves which have so far kept Brent crude and pump prices, hence inflation at large, artificially low, Washington will find it hard to resist a ground invasion. With no chance of winning this through shock and awe blitzkrieg – else they’d have attempted it months ago – that will be disastrous for the global economy.
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For his part Jon Elmer at The Electronic Intifada, in the first twenty-one of thirty-one minutes (before moving to the Lebanon situation on the ground) does what he does best: offering the nitty gritty on war theatre logistics. Use of maps is outstanding, best I’ve seen in coverage of the Strait.
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Finally and for those with the time, here’s Brian Berletic. His is fifty-four minutes; not because he’s prolix but because, as always, he has a lot to say.
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