See also my other post, earlier today, on Saturday’s attacks …
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Writing today on his substack, Andrew Koybko – a source I’ve also found valuable on Ukraine, Niger and the Azeri-Armenian conflict – has this to say:
Hamas launched an unprecedented sneak attack on Israel over the weekend that completely caught the self-professed Jewish State by surprise after all its security systems unexpectedly failed at the same time. The border wall was breached, some military bases were captured, and dozens of hostages were taken back to Gaza. Israel responded by launching airstrikes inside the strip and preparing a ground operation. Here are the top ten takeaways from everything that’s happened thus far in the latest Israeli-Hamas war:
1. Israel’s Alleged Invincibility Was Dispelled As An Illusion
For starters, nobody is under the illusion any longer that Israel is invincible. Up until this weekend’s sneak attack, some had continued to cling to the claim that its conventional military-technical capabilities and massive aid from America made it the regional hegemon, but that perception was just shattered.
2. It Was Totally Unprepared For Hamas’ Hybrid War Tactics
Upon the breaching of its border wall, which was the result of a colossal intelligence failure and subsequent collapse of all security systems, Israel proved that it was totally unprepared to counter Hamas’ Hybrid War tactics of lightning-fast squad assaults and rudimentary drone attacks.
3. Political Infighting Likely Contributed To This Intelligence Failure
Had Israel’s military and intelligence services not gotten involved in the political dispute over Netanyahu’s planned judicial reforms, which was exacerbated by the Biden Administration’s meddling as explained here, then they might have detected Hamas’ plans in advance and thus been able to foil them.
4. It Also Didn’t Help That US Spies Are Distracted With Ukraine
Israel must take full responsibility for its intelligence failures, but it also didn’t help any that its American ally’s spies have been distracted with Ukraine. If they weren’t so focused on that conflict, then they might have kept at least one satellite over Gaza that could have discovered Hamas’ military buildup.
5. America Is Now In A Dilemma Over Who Gets Finite Military Aid
Business Insider drew attention to America’s newfound dilemma over whether to give finite military aid, particularly artillery shells, to Ukraine as planned or redirect these resources to Israel instead. Its decision could have major implications for both conflicts since the choice between them is zero-sum.
6. Saudi Arabia Will Probably Freeze Its Peace Talks With Israel
Saudi Arabia is under immense pressure from the international Muslim community to freeze its reported peace talks with Israel after the latter’s strikes against civilian targets in Gaza. It’ll probably comply with these demands, which would then ruin the Biden Administration’s plans for a deal before the elections.
7. The IMEC Megaproject Will Likely Be Put On Ice For Some Time Too
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) can’t be completed if Saudi Arabia and/or especially Jordan freeze their role in its construction to protest Israel’s involvement in the latest conflict, though this won’t harm India’s trade with any relevant party since it’s entirely conducted by sea.
8. Russia & China’s Balanced Statements Surprised Some Observers
Many in the Alt-Media Community wrongly thought that Russia and China favored Palestine, hence why those two’s balanced statements here and here surprised them. Even fewer knew that President Putin fully supports the IDF as proven by his official statements over the years that were documented here.
9. The Debate Over Whether The Ends Justify The Means Has Re-Opened
Hamas’ killing of IDF-trained settlers-civilians and kidnapping of children, women, and the elderly to swap for prisoners was justified by some Palestinian supporters as a legitimate means for pursuing national liberation while other supporters criticized these tactics for undermining their cause’s morality.
10. Hezbollah Is The Wild Card In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War
Hamas’ sneak attack against Israel brought to life one of the latter’s worst nightmares, which might become even worse if Hezbollah decides to commence large-scale hostilities. In that event, Lebanon and possibly also Syria could be dragged into the fray, which could easily become existential for all parties.
Everything that’s happened thus far has been eye-opening for everyone. The reputation of Israel’s security services has been shattered, Hamas’ has never been better in the eyes of most non-Western observers, and many among the latter finally learned that neither Russia nor China favor Palestine. Should the latest conflict become protracted, let alone expand into a regional one, then there’s a real possibility that the US will freeze the Ukrainian Conflict in order to redirect finite military aid to Israel.
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Koybko usually gets things right but I’m not convinced about KSA’s response. As for Hezbollah, their position is limited to what they can achieve without Israel going full Kill Bill Volume 10 & attacking not just Jordan & the Lebanon but giving the excuse US could unreasonably use to do even more damage than their already murderous sanctions against Iran(It’s not as if the US needs an excuse, since it just makes them up, if they even bother to explain the inexplicable.
It amazes me that when France was occupied by the Nazis in WW2, the French Resistance were hailed as heroes. Israel invades and illegally occupies Palestine and are guilty of false imprisonment, executions, ethnic cleansing on an horrific scale, retribution on a massive scale all said qualifying as Crimes Against Humanity and yet the Palestinian Resistance are depicted as terrorists.
Putting aside the hypocrisy on full display, what, really, is the difference between the French Resistance and the Palestinian Resistance? Nobody is coming to the rescue of the Palestinian peoples and they know it. To hold Hamas to a different standard to that of Israel is tantamount to admitting that the favoured nations can do what they like but woe betide the “lesser races” doling out the same.
As for Putin, he was a qualifier in the WEF School of World Leaders and Xinping was an admirer of the WEF forerunner and Eugenicist Kissinger, so that explains their mealy mouthed responses.
I don’t know why IMEC needs to be put on ice since it doesn’t require Israel’s participation, that I know of and if Israel were to interfere with it, the consequences would be very bad for Israel & would set a precedent it could not deal with.
I have no idea what Pandora’s Box Hamas has let loose but I can’t say I’m surprised – it was only a matter of time.
Would any civilisation endure the cruelty of the Israeli regime without resisting it?
I know I wouldn’t.
Quite an encouraging article here: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-11-21/in-the-twilight-of-empires/ on the subject of Israel and its future demise.
PS I’ve just read the footnote at the end – it seems that the author is the ‘Archdruid of America’ or some such thing. However, the article itself is well argued and his conclusions seem valid to me.
Thanks Jams.
He may be an Arch Druid(I have no problem with the Druids, I’m half Irish, but he writes a good read. He really spells it out with regard Israel’s precarious situation and the multi-polar world that is unfolding.
My response?
Bring it on!
Susan:)
I find I cannot agree with Koybko regarding Russian and Chinese attitudes.
In his latest comments Putin criticised the US for assuming the role of broker when its only
reason for doing so was to enhance its own position in the Middle East and continually browbeat the protagonists to accept the US stance rather than find a real compromise.To this end it continually blocked
the engagement of other countries(eg Russia and China)which had a genuine desire to mediate in the conflict.In which case for either to take up a partisan position would be to undermine such a role.
Nonetheless there have been suggestions that Putin is moving closer to his military advisors view that
the Israeli actions are indefensible.See John Helmer,s most recent article
https://johnhelmer.net/the-silence-of-the-bears-russia-is-reorienting-towards-the-arabs/
Thanks for this Chick. As I understand it Putin – a cautious and long game thinker – has been trying to walk an increasingly difficult and some might say oxymoronic line. Defending Palestinians without overtly attacking Israel. After all, many ethnic Russians live there.
If the Kremlin is tilting toward Palestine that may be moral outrage but more likely is based on shifting geostrategic realpolitik. In this regard, whether or not the attacks were in whole or part false flag – I think it possible but on balance unlikely – the considerations Simplicius lays on the table in making the FF case are valuable.